1、 Price trend

In January 2021, the coke market rose for three rounds, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan / ton. The mainstream price of Shanxi market was 2242.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2560 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 14.16%.

On January 25, the coke commodity index was 134.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.49% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 287.82% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Since the beginning of 2021, the coke market has continued to force the trend, with the overall strong operation as the main factor. This month, it has gone through three rounds of increase, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan / ton. The three rounds of increase are relatively fast, mainly affected by the lack of effective relief of the tight situation of coke supply. At present, the profit of coking enterprises is relatively high, with a profit of nearly one thousand yuan. Under the high profit blessing, the coking enterprises are active in starting work, and the starting work is relatively high. After the new year’s day, affected by the public health situation, transportation in some areas was limited. Shanxi, Hebei and other places changed the automobile transportation to fire transportation, and the transportation cost increased to a certain extent. The downstream steel plants in some restricted areas enter the overhaul. Although the overhaul enterprises are limited, it is expected that some enterprises will join the overhaul team in the future under the impact of the current tight coke supply and low profits of downstream steel plants. The 15th round of price increase started on the 26th, with the current round of price increase of 100 yuan / ton. However, limited by the downstream profits, the steel mills are more resistant. In the continuous game of coke steel, the 15th round of price increase has not yet been implemented by the end of press release.

Port: the two ports in Shandong are still in strong operation this month, and the price is stable after rising. As of 26, the mainstream spot ex warehouse price of port quasi primary metallurgical coke is about 2950 yuan / ton, and the price of primary coke is 3050 yuan / ton. The inventory of the two ports decreased slightly, the supply of goods available for sale in the port was still relatively small, the 15th round of increase started, the downstream steel plants were restricted by profits and did not accept it for the time being, and coke steel continued to play the game.

In the future, the Business Association believes that the profits of downstream steel plants have been to the end in the near future, some steel plants have reported losses, some enterprises have entered the overhaul, and there is a demand for pre Festival stock in the industry near the new year, but the coke price is high recently, and the downstream procurement is slightly difficult. This round of coke steel game may last for a period of time, and the landing difficulty is greater than in the past. Future focus on all aspects of coke inventory and downstream steel start-up.

Relevant data:

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 390000 tons of coke in December 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 49.35% and a month on month increase of 34.48%. In December, the coke export volume was US $104.105 million, a year-on-year decrease of 37.40% and a month on month increase of 69.78%. According to this calculation, the export unit price is 266.94 US dollars / ton, up 50.97 US dollars / ton year-on-year and 55.50 US dollars / ton month on month. From January to December 2020, China’s total coke export was 3.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 46.5%; the total export value was 772.848 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 57%.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2020, the national coke output was 39.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; from January to December, the national coke output was 47.116 million tons, a year-on-year flat. In December 2020, 350 million tons of raw coal will be produced, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and the growth rate will be 1.7 percentage points faster than that of last month; the daily output will be 11.35 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 230000 tons. In 2020, 3.84 billion tons of raw coal will be produced, an increase of 0.9% over the previous year.