1、 Price trend
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According to the statistics of the business association, in 2020, the domestic price of potassium sulfate will be divided into two levels. At the beginning of the year, the price will go up all the way. In early April, the price will go down for a long time. In November, the price will start to pick up again. The average price of 50% Mannheim granules at the beginning of the year was about 2800 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the year was about 2725 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.68%. From the price trend in the figure above, it can be seen that the highest price of Mannheim 50% particles appeared in mid March, with the highest price of 2875 yuan / ton. Since then, the price has been declining in a step-by-step manner. In November, the price began to pick up, and then all the way up.
2、 Market analysis
From the perspective of price trend, the overall market of potassium sulfate in 2020 can be divided into three stages.
The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the beginning of April. The domestic potassium sulfate market first depressed and then rose, changing from the initial downturn to the rise. The price is all the way high. When it reaches the highest price, there is a difference of 125 yuan / ton from the previous lowest price, which is a big price gap for potassium sulfate. At the beginning of February, it was in the off-season of the industry, and potassium sulfate had been in a state of tepid and tepid. Affected by the epidemic situation, the operating rate of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate dropped to about 41%. Coupled with the uncontrollable influence of sales and logistics, the inventory pressure of enterprises continued to increase. The operating rate of potassium sulfate in water salt system is also very low, and the recovery time is uncertain for the time being.
In March, under the premise of increasing demand, the upstream potassium chloride market also gradually rose. After the year, Mannheim potassium sulfate enterprises had more equipment shutdown and maintenance, and the operating rate was about 50%. The water and salt system was only started by Luo potassium. The enterprises had no inventory pressure, and the price of hydrochloric acid was reversed. The market began to strengthen and rise gradually. By the end of March, the operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate industry in the Northeast market was still as high as 80%. Although the price of potassium sulfate had no upward momentum, it was mainly stable as a whole. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 52% water-soluble powder and 50% Extruded round grain was 2850 yuan / ton, basically without preferential treatment. The stations of water salt system potassium sulfate manufacturers were: Xinjiang 51-52% powder 3100-3150; Qinghai 50% powder 2300-2380.
The second stage is from April to October. After the spring market, the seasonal demand of potash fertilizer industry is low. The international price continued to decline, followed by the price of potassium chloride. The price trend of potassium sulfate was directly affected by the price of potassium chloride. Since April, the market has been going down. After the negotiation of potash contract is over, it will have a great impact on the domestic fertilizer market. The market of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate is down, and potassium sulfate is also in the doldrums.
Due to the better market situation in spring, the operation rate of potassium sulfate industry has gradually recovered. The operation rate of Mannheim has risen from about 40% when it was the lowest in mid February to about 65% in April. However, the maintenance of ROK in summer this year has lasted for five months, which weakens the risk of competitive price reduction between potassium sulfate in water salt system and Mannheim potassium sulfate. The orders executed in succession make potassium sulfate not under pressure in inventory power. In July, Fujian tobacco opened the bid, and Luo potassium was the first candidate to win the bid. The agent’s market price increased by 50 yuan / ton. Although the whole potassium sulfate Market was in the off-season, the market price remained stable. After that, although potassium chloride started to rise, the potassium sulfate Market was more stable, the demand was insufficient, and the market was more wait-and-see.
The third stage is from November to the end of December. Because potassium chloride continues to rise and the price of by-product hydrochloric acid also drops, the cost pressure of Mannheim potassium sulfate plant increases greatly, and the early decline trend is stopped. The rise of potassium chloride not only increased the cost of Mannheim potassium sulfate, but also caused the rebound of local low-end because the downstream worried that potassium sulfate would rise like potassium chloride. The resumption of production of sinopotash in September, due to the relatively limited production capacity, and most of them have been pre-sale in advance, the price has been rising continuously since November. However, the supply of potassium sulfate in the water salt system was tight, which helped Mannheim potassium sulfate to stabilize its weakness to a certain extent. When the price was relatively low, we began to increase the purchase, and the sales of Mannheim potassium sulfate did improve to a certain extent. By the end of December, due to the environmental protection and gas limitation factors in Henan and Hebei, some manufacturers temporarily stopped production and limited production. The operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate industry decreased slightly and the price was temporarily stable.
Potassium sulfate market trend chart over the years
Future forecast
According to the potassium sulfate analysts of business news agency, at present, the price of potassium sulfate in water salt system is very close to Mannheim. Near the Spring Festival, the potash fertilizer market begins to weaken, and the price of potassium sulfate is mainly stable for the time being. However, as the weak market continues, the confidence of the industry has also been hit. In addition, the expectation that the downturn in demand will continue until the Spring Festival holiday gradually increases, so Manufacturers have no expectation for the future market. It is expected that the market will be stable for some time in the future.
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