1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, aniline prices are running high this week. On December 20, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7600-7700 yuan / ton; on December 27, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 7900-8000 yuan / ton; on December 27, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7600-7700 yuan / ton; on December 27, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 7900-8000 yuan / ton, the average price was the same as last week, increased by 2.65% over the beginning of the month and 17.17% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the price of crude oil and pure benzene in Europe and the United States fell after the discovery of a more infectious new coronavirus variant strain in the UK last weekend. The domestic market is under pressure. The Yangtze River Estuary was unsealed and imported pure benzene arrived in Hong Kong one after another. The port inventory rebounded and the pure benzene market was under pressure. In addition, the shipment of pure benzene factory is not smooth, and the price of pure benzene keeps falling under multiple bad conditions. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was stable, at 4600 yuan / ton, and the listed price was firm. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 13000 tons lower than last week. On Sunday (December 27), the price of pure benzene was 3880-4600 yuan / ton (average price was 4414 yuan / ton), down 72 yuan / ton or 1.6% from last week.

The price of nitric acid fell this week compared with last week. On Friday (December 25), the production price of nitric acid in East China was set at 2050 yuan / ton, down 16.67 yuan / ton or 0.81% compared with last Friday. Compared with the beginning of the month, it increased by 250 yuan / ton, or 13.89%. It increased by 28.12% over the same period last year.

Aniline prices are stable this week, and the operating rate is more stable than last week. At present, aniline is less affected by pure benzene, the supply and demand of the factory is balanced, and the shipment is stable.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the release of the Yangtze River estuary is expected to increase the amount of pure benzene arriving at the port in the later period, and the port inventory is under pressure. Near the end of the month, pure benzene fundamentals are expected to remain weak. Later, we will continue to pay attention to crude oil, external market related news, styrene price trend and arrival of imported ships.

Near the end of the month, we should pay attention to the future trend of raw material pure benzene; on the supply side, we should pay attention to the plant operation load and maintenance plan; on the demand side, we should pay attention to the purchase of downstream additives and MDI. Aniline prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.