According to the price monitoring of business agencies, since the beginning of November, the domestic PTA market has started a rebound mode, and the price continues to rise in December. As of December 14, the domestic PTA spot market price was 3628 yuan / ton, with a one-day increase of 3.71%, an increase of 9.62% compared with the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year decrease of 25.58%.

Crude oil rose, cost support enhanced, boosting PTA price rebound. At the beginning of December, the ministerial meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an agreement. From January 2021, Member States voluntarily adjusted the scale of production reduction from 7.7 million barrels per day to 7.2 million barrels per day. The meeting also decided that the compensation period for production reduction will be extended to the end of March 2021. Since then, it is expected to gradually increase oil production and reduce the scale of production reduction. After the announcement, international oil prices continued to rise. At the same time, as many countries have begun to promote vaccination work, the market is more optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand, and oil producing countries have announced production cuts in recent years. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices have reached their highest levels since the beginning of March. Among them, Brent crude oil on Thursday (December 10) strong break through the $50 / barrel resistance barrier.

Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status

Huabin Petrochemical 140 starts to shut down for 3 days after load reduction on December 7, 2020

Yangzi Petrochemical 35 will be overhauled on November 3, 2020, and the restart time is unknown

Hanbang Petrochemical entered the overhaul on May 9, 2020, and restart to be determined

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 will stop at night on March 9, 2020, and the restart time is to be determined

Zhongtai Petrochemical 120 will be overhauled on September 30, 2020 and postponed to restart on December 16

Zhuhai BP 110 will be overhauled from December 13, 2020 to the end of December

Eason Hainan 200 is scheduled to be overhauled in March 2021

Fuhai Chuang 450 plans to overhaul for 25 days on December 23, 2020

At present, the supply side, the industry started to maintain at a high level of 93%. In terms of specific units, 1.4 million tons of Huabin Petrochemical Company began to reduce the load on December 7 and shut down for 3 days; Zhongtai Petrochemical 1.2 million tons / year PTA plant was postponed to restart on December 16; fuhaichuang 4.5 million tons / year PTA plant was planned to be overhauled on December 23 for 25 days; Zhuhai bp1.1 million tons / year PTA plant began to be repaired from December 13 to the end of December; Hainan Yisheng 2 million tons / year PTA plant is currently in stable operation, and the preliminary plan is March 2021 overhaul.

Driven by the international oil price, it has promoted the enthusiasm of chemical fiber manufacturers to raise prices. The price of enterprises has been raised, driven by the rising atmosphere of terminal purchase, the production and sales are picking up, and the quantity and price of polyester filament are rising. The focus of the negotiations on polyester filament has been rising. Polyester POY (150D / 48F) of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces reported 5350-5750 yuan / ton, up 300-500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. In terms of production and marketing, the market of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is booming. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 100% – 120%, and the production and sales of some better factories are as high as 280%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 17-32 days, of which POY inventory is 4-11 days, FDY inventory is around 12-29 days, and DTY inventory is about 19-32 days.

At the same time, after the downturn of production and sales, weaving enterprises also have the demand for replenishment. However, after the orders of the “double 11″ and “double 12″ Shopping Festival were gradually delivered, the new orders were not good, the follow-up orders were weak, and the loom start-up rate was reduced to less than 80%. The market as a whole is relatively low, and enterprise funds are relatively tight, and the demand side is still facing greater pressure. New orders follow-up is weak, and the persistence is poor, and some weaving enterprises have accumulated a small amount of stock.

Xia Ting, an analyst with the business agency, believes that the seasonal off-season of the terminal in December is approaching. Although some PTA units are expected to be overhauled, the operating rate has increased compared with November, and the overall supply is still at a high level. At the beginning of December, PTA social inventory rose to 4.156 million tons, an increase of 2.822 million tons compared with the beginning of the year. Oversupply will further aggravate, social inventory or close to 5 million tons in the year, the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to intensify, inhibit the rise of PTA market. In the short term, the current international crude oil price is strong and PTA plant short-term maintenance boost, PTA market is more cautious.