Zinc price trend
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According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price rose sharply in November, and the zinc market rose. As of November 30, the average price of zinc was 21880.00 yuan / ton, which was 8.75% higher than that of 20120.00 yuan / ton on November 1 at the beginning of the month.
China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index
According to the National Bureau of statistics, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 52.1% in November, which was above the critical point for nine consecutive months, and the PMI in November was the highest in 2020. The PMI is higher than the level in the year, which indicates that China’s economy has recovered steadily, and the recovery momentum is good, and there is a momentum of accelerated development. With the recovery and development of economy, the demand for zinc market is rising steadily, and the benefit of zinc market is greater.
Import and export data of zinc and its products
Time stamp export (RMB 10000) import (RMB 10000) accumulated over the same period last year
Monthly volume, current year cumulative volume, current year cumulative volume, export and import
January 2019 zinc and its products 13747 13747 149311 149311 24.5 – 14.1
February 2019 zinc and its products 7004 20767 49626 198936 – 4.5 – 26.7
March 2019 zinc and its products 10400 31164 121449 320385 – 7.7 – 14.9
April 2019 zinc and its products 11097 42035 175192 495577 – 8.5 5.4
May 2019 zinc and its products 12385 54423 139800 635348 – 11.1 3
June 2019 zinc and its products 25686 80135 132032 767326 3.6 7
July 2019 zinc and its products 38507 118653 101923 869371 26.9 4.5
August 2019 zinc and its products 20777 139402 141244 1010615 30 6.6
September 2019 zinc and its products 14268 153670 80799 1091454 25.4 – 0.6
October 2019 zinc and its products 21319 174932 98273 1189390 30.2 – 6.4
November 2019 zinc and its products 32531 207394 101435 1292566 39.1 – 14.4
December 2019 zinc and its products 23286 229131 148593 1441230 40.1 – 15.7
From January to February 2020, zinc and its products 29057 137093 41.3 – 31.2
March 2020 zinc and its products 17123 46174 80479 217620 50.5 – 32.4
April 2020 zinc and its products 15395 61569 84595 302215 48.1 – 39.3
May 2020 zinc and its products 13335 75013 94772 396988 39.1 – 37.6
June 2020 zinc and its products 13774 88788 132810 529798 11.8 – 30.9
July 2020 zinc and its products 13351 102139 106681 636479 – 13.2 – 26.7
August 2020 zinc and its products 12273 114412 120095 756573 – 17.2 – 25.1
September 2020 zinc and its products 11818 126230 139195 895768 – 17.1 – 17.8
October 2020 zinc and its products 12744 138974 149146 1044914 – 19.9 – 12.1
According to the statistics released by the national customs, the export volume of zinc and its products will drop sharply in 2020, and the import volume will drop sharply but rise slowly. In general, the export of domestic zinc market will decline, the import will pick up, and the negative pressure of domestic zinc market will increase.
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Supply and demand data of global zinc Market
According to the data of the international lead and zinc research group, the excess supply scale of the global zinc market rose from 3.15 tons in August to 33100 tons in September. In the first nine months of this year, there was a surplus of 437000 tons of zinc, compared with a shortage of 197000 tons in the same period last year. The output of zinc ore in September was 1.091 million tons, with a slight increase on a month on month basis. The output of zinc ore from January to September was 8.866 million tons; the output of refined zinc in September was 1.152 million tons, with a slight increase on a month on month basis. The refined zinc output from January to September was 9.977 million tons. The consumption of refined zinc in September was 1.119 million tons, and that in January September was 9.54 million tons. The excess risk of global zinc market is obviously increased, which is bad for domestic zinc market. The rising risk of zinc market is increasing, and the negative effect still exists in zinc market.
Analysis, review and Prospect
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, said: the domestic economic recovery accelerated in November, and the domestic economy was all-round positive. The demand for zinc market rose, and the good news of the zinc market remained. However, the pressure of oversupply in the global zinc market is increasing, and the import and export imbalance of zinc market is increasing, the import and export are decreasing, and the downward pressure of domestic zinc market is greater. Generally speaking, the future zinc market has both positive and negative effects, and the overall zinc market is favorable, but the negative pressure is increased, and the support for the rise of zinc market is weakened. It is expected that the future zinc market will still have a small rise space, but the downward pressure of zinc market will accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to fall slightly at the end of the year.
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