1、 Price trend of propylene oxide
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)
2、 Market analysis
The market of propylene oxide rose sharply in August. According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, as of August 31, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 13600 yuan / ton, up 21.79% compared with August 1, and increased by 52.24% over the same period of three months.
Region July 31 August 31 remarks
RMB 10950-11100 / T, RMB 13350-13500 / T
East China 11400-11500 yuan / ton 13700-13800 yuan / ton
RMB 11000-11100 / T in South China, RMB 13300-13400 / T
In the first half of August, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises on the first half of August was 11166.67 yuan / ton. On the 1st-5th day, the raw material propylene fluctuated slightly, and the cost side had little impact. The factories generally had no accumulation. The downstream polyether rigid replenishment was stable, and the demand side follow-up was fair. The price of propylene oxide rose to 12233.33 yuan / ton on the 5th, and the propylene oxide plant showed an upward trend from June to 10th. The propylene oxide plant was not under pressure, and the new order was still relatively low On the 10th, the price of propylene oxide rose to 13100.00 yuan / ton. On November 15th, the raw material propylene declined, and the downstream pressure weakened. The new orders of propylene oxide plant decreased slightly, but there was no obvious pressure on the whole. The average price of propylene oxide enterprises on the 14th was 13100.00 yuan / ton The weak atmosphere is strong.
In the second half of August, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises on the 17th was 12966.67 yuan / ton. The price of propylene oxide began to stabilize, the downstream polyether orders increased, and the propylene oxide factory shipped smoothly. The manufacturers’ intention to support the market was obvious, and the offer rose. On the 20th, the price of propylene oxide rose to 13200 yuan / T. the factory had no pressure for the time being, which supported the price, but the terminal was under pressure, and the downstream new orders were reduced, On the 25th, the market of propylene oxide rose slightly to 13266.67 yuan / ton due to the increase of polyether orders at the beginning of the week and the positive transmission of the industrial chain. On the 27th, the overall production and sales of propylene oxide plants were not under pressure, which supported the manufacturers’ mentality. The price of propylene oxide was 13400 yuan / ton, and the new orders were slightly slower. The downstream held a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards high price raw materials, and the price remained stable The downstream polyether plant just needed to stabilize, and the price of propylene oxide rose again to 13600 yuan / ton.
| PVA |
For upstream propylene, Shandong propylene broke through the oscillation range in August and stabilized after going up. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose to break through the original range, and then fluctuated and stabilized, with 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.34%; the monthly low price appeared on August 4, with a monthly price of 6826 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared from August 10 to 13, with a monthly amplitude of 3.08%.
According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 31, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11733.33 yuan / ton, down 1.4% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. As of August 31, the pressure of downstream soft foam polyether increased, the raw material propylene oxide rose, the cost pressure rose, and the focus of market negotiation rose.
3、 Future forecast
Propylene oxide business analysts believe that the supply and demand led in August, the rise in propylene oxide is strong. In September, the market price of raw material propylene is rising, and the downstream polyether is under pressure and rising. The middle and lower reaches are resistant to high price raw materials, most of which need to be fixed. However, the inventory of propylene oxide plant is still not under pressure. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be mainly operated at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for the specific trend.
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