1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, this week’s domestic toluene market trend is stable. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3360 yuan / ton, down 0.59% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

The price trend of toluene is stable this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. The port storage continues to fall, but it is still high, and the pressure to go to the reservoir still exists. However, the import volume decreased this month, and the shortage of filling capacity began to ease. Supply surplus, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is still tepid, toluene demand continues to warm trend, market trading atmosphere is not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil: at the beginning of this week, affected by the hurricane, a large number of refining facilities in the Gulf of Mexico coastal area were closed, and oil prices rose strongly. In the middle of the week, the impact of Hurricane transit was less than expected, and US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose sharply and fell back. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $1.305/barrel to close at $44.875/barrel, up 3% from last week. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.

Downstream, TDI continued to rise this week, the market quotation continued to rise, Wanhua chemical listed this week settlement price of 15000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a small upward trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 517 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 535 US dollars / ton CFR China, down about 14 US dollars / ton compared with last week. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. Overall, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.