Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic ABS market has been in a narrow downward trend in July, and some spot prices in the market have been reduced. As of July 31, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS is about 12900.00 yuan / ton, which is 2.64% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, domestic Styrene Market in July stable operation, in which East China region slightly increased. The price trend of crude oil at the far end of the cost fluctuated, and the price of pure benzene and ethylene was relatively stable, and the price trend of styrene was not clear. On the downstream side, EPS, PS and ABS decreased slightly at the end of the month, and the demand for styrene did not increase. It is reported that the storage cost of styrene at the port has been increased, increasing the pressure of de stocking. Futures pull up, driving the spot market prices to rise, to the end of the month, replenishment transactions. There is a bullish mentality in the market, and the low price goods supply is reduced. Supply supply weakened after the market, good support. It is expected that the market will continue to confront each other in recent days. On the whole, this week’s styrene price rebound is limited, but in the short term, it is still more negative, and the price consolidation.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, in July, the domestic market was depressed and turned positive. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that the operating rate of production enterprises was further improved, and the supply pressure in the market was further increased. The recent rise of cost side has pressure on the factory. Under the pressure of oversupply and cost, acrylonitrile production plant reduced its load in order to divert the contradiction between supply and demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand was improved. Although the downstream just needs to purchase, stock operation is cautious, but the factory recently cut production again, stimulating the market bullish sentiment. Business offers for shipment turn warm, actual trading is average, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to be positive.

The domestic butadiene market rose widely in July, especially in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 3445 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 4473 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 29.83% during the month, and a decrease of 49.68% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the month, the restart of Tianjin Zhongsha and North Huajin devices made the market’s wavelet rise not continue at that time. However, due to the strong performance of the internal and external markets in the month, combined with the limited quantity of domestic suppliers, the release of market supply was less than expected; meanwhile, affected by the weather, some ships in East China delayed unloading, and the spot supply was temporarily tight, which boosted the supplier’s price and accelerated the price rise. The short-term bullish expectation stimulated the positive inquiry of downstream, and some of them showed the sentiment of chasing up, which further promoted the market to climb up. However, with the rapid rise of the market, the cautious atmosphere of the market is gradually rising. At the end of the month, the arrival of ships to Hong Kong and the increase of northeast supply, the high price transaction was hindered, and the market dropped slightly. In August, on the one hand, the high external market and abundant raw materials from domestic manufacturers may affect the reduction of import sources in the second half of the month. However, at the same time, there are plans for the production of 120000 T / a new units in Baolai, Liaoning Province, which may continue to supplement domestic demand. Under the deadlock between supply and demand, butadiene analysts in the business community expect that the butadiene market will fluctuate between small areas and wait for the transaction to follow up. The short-term upward push resistance is obvious, and the medium and long-term needs to pay attention to the release of new production capacity.

In July, the domestic ABS price market showed a slow decline, and the domestic ABS petrochemical plant operating rate remained at a high level. Among them, the first ten days of market just need support is still in, ABS market surface operation is more stable. With the petrochemical plant operating at almost full capacity, although the inventory is still at a low level, the on-site spot circulation began to increase. In addition, at the end of the month, the merchants actively let the profit and order to complete the task, and the downstream factory’s stock operation turned to be cautious, and the demand weakened, resulting in a narrow reduction of several brands.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: July ABS market stability has fallen, the price of each brand narrow range. Cost side of the upstream three material recent trend is not the same, the cost side support is general. At present, ABS spot supply began to increase, downstream of high price ABS goods attitude is cautious, take goods just need to go single. At the end of the month, merchants actively reduce the price to complete the task, and there is room for profit making. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to narrow down in the near future.