1、 Strong rally at the end of the month
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Figure 1: natural rubber commodity index trend in July 2020
Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on July 30 was 32.41, up 0.85 points compared with yesterday, 67.59% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 18.80% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Figure 2: Trend of mainstream price of natural rubber since July 2020
According to the data of natural rubber (bid 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of Baodao whole milk market was about 10089 yuan / ton on July 1, 10910 yuan / ton on the 30th, with a monthly increase of 8.14%. Among them, the price of 10910 yuan / ton on the 30th was the highest price of this month, and 10089 yuan / ton on the 1st day was the lowest point of this month, and the maximum earthquake amplitude was 8.14%. In the last few days of the end of the month, it continuously increased, with the highest breaking through 11100 yuan / ton, which greatly pushed up the price of natural rubber this month; however, this pull-up was more a game between the long and short forces of futures.
At the end of the month, bulls rose. This month, rubber 09 contract fluctuated around 10600 yuan / T for many days. In the late ten days, it began to shock high, breaking through the early high point. In particular, the bull continued to pull up at the end of the month, highlighting the strength.
Imports increased year on year. China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 534000 tons in June 2020, up 21% year-on-year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14. From January to June 2020, China imported 3.313 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), with an increase of 1.9% over the same period. In terms of import sources, Vietnam’s export of mixed rubber increased by 1.4% in the first half of the year compared with the same period of last year, while the export volume of Thailand in the first half year decreased year on year, and the export of mixed rubber increased by 50%. Domestic economic situation continued to recover, rubber downstream industry slowly improved.
Stocks vary. As of July 31, warehouse receipts and futures inventories of the exchange were 237846 tons and 230140 tons, respectively, down 5041 tons and 970 tons compared with last week. It is reported that the dominant inventory of Qingdao and Shanghai ports and the hidden inventory of production and marketing areas are about 1.1 million tons. It is estimated that the stock of natural rubber in China will reach about 1.5 million tons. The inventory of natural rubber in East China is still high. High port inventory and low Warehouse Receipt Inventory coexist this month.
The operating rate continued to rise. According to the data, as of July 24, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 71.62%, up 0.46% month on month and 0.43% year on year; the operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 66.49%, up 1.03% month on month and 3.15% year on year. The domestic epidemic situation is good and the demand is recovering continuously; however, the overseas epidemic situation is grim, and the recovery of China’s tire export situation is slow, and the uncertainty is still large in the later stage.
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2、 From January to July, the trend is half “V”
Figure 3: price trend of natural rubber mainstream from January to July 2020
2020 is a special year. Under the influence of special factors, all walks of life seem to press the pause button or slow down the lens, and the normal operation track is weakened by delayed goods. Natural rubber, as a sensitive agricultural product and strategic industrial product, its market trend follows the changes of the environment. The natural rubber market price monitored by the business agency shows that the natural rubber market price dropped continuously from 12130 yuan / ton on January 1 to 9100 yuan / ton at the end of March and the beginning of April, It has set the lowest price for more than 10 years, and has undoubtedly completed the left part of the “V” trend – a sharp drop of nearly 24%; with the resumption of production in various industries in China since March, the downstream demand has slowly recovered. Since April, natural rubber has gradually stepped into the rebound trend. Although the process is full of repetition and the speed is relatively slow, the first half of the year, the increase of natural rubber is still 8.48%, about 10078 yuan / ton At the beginning of the second half of the year, the price of natural rubber increased by 8.26% in only one month, and the rebound speed was obviously accelerated. In this process, the downstream operating rate of natural rubber continued to rise, and the demand continued to be good, which was part of the factor. However, it did not reach the extent of substantial increase in a short period of several days. In fact, traders also reflected that the prices of several days at the end of the month were continuously charged High by futures long position on 09 contract led to.
3、 The future situation is better
According to the analysis of the business agency, since 2020, the output of new rubber has not yet met the market demand due to various factors. The price drop caused by a large number of listing in previous years has not yet appeared this year. In Yunnan Banna region, there is a continuous shortage of new rubber products, and some rubber supplies in the Shanghai market are also in short supply. The warehouse receipt inventory of the previous period is low, but the Port imported rubber inventory is still high At present, China’s natural rubber production areas have entered the rainy season, and it is impossible to predict that a large number of new rubber will be put on the market in the coming months. The rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia have made some progress in the prevention and control of epidemic situation in recent years, and the economic activities have gradually recovered. However, the situation in many countries is different, and the output of new rubber is still limited. At present, under the influence of special situation, the recovery of foreign orders of Tianjiao downstream enterprises is still unpredictable, but the recovery trend can be seen from the continuous rise of operating rate on a month on month basis. At present, under the comprehensive effect of multiple factors, Tianjiao, which has been in the low price range for a long time, has a strong upward trend in recent days. In the process of repeated shocks, the decline range will not be very large. From the perspective of China’s economic recovery, China’s economy will continue to improve in the third quarter. The shortage of goods in Yunnan, especially in Banna, still forms a certain support for prices, especially local prices. In addition, Southeast Asian rubber producing countries delay tapping for two months, and the late environment is unpredictable. It is a foregone conclusion that the annual rubber production will decline year on year. To maintain the view of small fluctuations in the future market of natural rubber, with the gradual consumption of spot rubber inventory, the price is expected to rise again and again until a large number of new rubber are listed.
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