In July 2020, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, the market center of gravity continued to move down, and the settlement price announced at the end of the month fell to the lowest point in the year. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the BDO price at the beginning of the month was 7960 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the month was 7712 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.12% within the month. The price fell 16.90% compared with the same period last year.

In this month, the domestic BDO market started at a low level and the spot supply was tight. The factory raised its listing in July and continued to go up in August. The mentality of supporting the market was obvious. But the middle and lower reaches follow-up situation is general, the market center of gravity slowly narrow range up. Some factories are still in parking, the market start-up is relatively low, and a large amount of early-stage inventory has been digested; and some factories in Xinjiang are affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation is limited, the market spot supply is tight, the factory’s intention to go low is not strong, and the offer is firm and upward. Some traders followed up the price hike, the mainstream wait-and-see mood in the middle and lower reaches was strong, and the actual single trading was rarely heard. In the last ten days of the month, the listing of main factories increased by 100 yuan / ton in July, and continued to rise in August, with an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with that in July. Most downstream factories mainly purchase by contract, and a small number of spot customers follow up on demand. They enter the market to depress prices, and the negotiation of new orders rises slowly. In the next month, the storage and shutdown device will restart, which will benefit or weaken the supply side. However, there is no obvious change in downstream start-up, and the replenishment is limited. Therefore, the industry is cautious to push up the price and continue to pay attention to the device dynamics and the downstream mentality changes.

In terms of devices, Ronghe and Xinye are in shutdown, and the restart time is not determined; Dongyuan plans to start on August 10; Henan stops on July 13 and restarts on July 20; Ningxia Sinopec Changcheng two sets of units operate; Shaanxi Shaanxi chemical company has 70% of the load; Shaanxi black cat load is 60%; Tianye phase I is shut down for maintenance on May 18, while phase II and phase III units are under continuous shutdown, and the restart time is unknown; Panjin Dalian is scheduled to overhaul on June 10 , has not been restarted; Cathay Pacific’s overall load is 60%; MEC’s load is 60%; Hecheng coal’s plan to restart in July, the time is unknown.

Raw materials: methanol: the overall methanol price in this month showed an inverted “V” trend, with favorable trading atmosphere before restraining. In the first ten days of the month, Yulin Yankuang and Xinjiang Guanghui units shut down one after another, while jinchengtai and Guotai are still in the maintenance stage. Xinao and Rongxin maintain low load operation. The mainstream prices are pushed up in a narrow range under the support of low supply. Most upstream factories maintain a balance of production and sales without pressure to ship goods. Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia provide more local olefins, and Guanzhong region supplies more goods to Henan, Lianghu and other places. In the last ten days of the month, the upstream devices began to restart one after another, and the supply continued to increase. However, the downstream demand was not followed up enough. The traders resisted the high price, and the upstream order rate decreased, resulting in a narrow rise in inventory. Under the pressure of shipment, the prices in various regions fell again, and the market atmosphere became weak. At present, the mentality of the industry is empty, the demand has not improved significantly, and the short-term market weakness is difficult to change.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market first stabilized and then rose this month, mainly affected by the maintenance of PVC enterprises in Northwest China. However, the external sales volume of supporting calcium carbide increased, which led to the aggravation of the market bearish mentality. However, the downstream delivery volume remained low. Therefore, the overall market consolidation and wait-and-see was the main market. The mainstream ex factory price in Wuhai in the middle and early ten days was maintained at 2300 yuan / ton. This month, the overall transportation inspection of the market is strict, and the phenomenon of prawei and overload is strictly limited. In addition, with the peak season of fruit and vegetable transportation in Northwest China, the logistics costs continue to rise. In the late ten days, with the decrease of export volume in Northwest China and the continuous transportation inspection, the regional shortage of downstream arrival volume gradually appeared, and the price of calcium carbide began to rise. At present, the mainstream price in Wuhai area rose to 2500 yuan / ton. With the end of the maintenance of PVC carbide method in the main downstream of calcium carbide, as well as the improvement of starting enthusiasm, the demand continues to increase. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide will continue to rise next month..

Downstream, this month, the domestic spandex PTMEG market narrow downward. The market start-up is relatively stable, and the pressure of PTMEG shipment is large. Downstream spandex just need to enter the market, the supplier’s mentality of shipment still exists, narrow range of profit negotiation.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities that increased were sulfuric acid (42.50%), butadiene (29.83%) and propane (14.43%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.9% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were acetone (- 38.02%), phenol (- 19.93%) and isopropanol (- 18.75%). This month, the average rise and fall was – 0.47%.

In the future, the raw material carbide storage is expected to go up, and the cost side support is relatively strong; in the supply side, Hemei has stopped for a week outside of the plan since July 30, and Dongyuan and Panjin Dalian inventory are expected to restart, and the supply will increase. In the short term, the supply is still slightly tight, and in the long run, the favorable support at the supply side is weakened. When the raw material inventory is digested, although the demand side has the expected increment, the overall operating change is not big and the digestion is limited. BDO analysts of business agency predict that there is a possibility of narrow upward exploration in domestic BDO market in the first half of July; in the second half of July, with the restart of parking devices, the market tends to be strong and volatile, focusing on the start-up of devices and changes in downstream demand.