Commodity index: on June 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.66, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 20.04% compared with 107.13 point (2019-05-08), and 0.14% higher than the lowest point of 85.54 on June 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Price quotation: the data shows that the overall market of Polyacrylamide in June has a small wave dynamic trend; compared with the market at the end of May, polyacrylamide (cationic and molecular weight of 12 million) in June has stopped falling and stabilized. On June 1, 2020, the mainstream market quotation is about 14000 yuan / ton, and on the 30th day, the mainstream market quotation is about 14020 yuan / ton, with an increase rate of 0.14%.

Factor analysis:

First of all, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price will drop sharply first, and then it will continue to adjust to a certain extent. Since the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half of the month was about 8000 yuan / ton. In June, after several small rebounds, it was stable at around 8550 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. In the late ten days, some manufacturers continued to rise, with the highest price guaranteed to be around 8800-8900 yuan / ton. However, since then, the manufacturer’s quotation had a total of 150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream average price generally ended at 8400 yuan / T. in terms of units, the load of the acrylonitrile unit of srbon Petrochemical Company resumed production in four lines on June 10 The plant with an annual capacity of 260000 tons was put into trial production on June 23. At present, acrylonitrile production of major domestic manufacturers is normal. Downstream demand: in 2020, the ex factory quotation of polyacrylamide enterprises has been at a low point. The manufacturer said that the profit margin was very small, and it was almost impossible to fall. This year’s business was much worse than that in 2019. For the second half of the year, it was still roughly estimated that this was still the case, and they were more worried about the impact of winter epidemic.

Secondly, the manufacturer production angle. It is found that the manufacturers in Henan, one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, have normal production and high inventory. After a slight rebound in the first ten days of this month, the prices of the main specifications of polyacrylamide are basically stable in the middle and late ten days: cationic: molecular weight: 12 million, quoted price: 13000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight: 10 million yuan, quoted price: 7000-9600 yuan / ton; molecular weight: 12 million yuan / ton, 8000-10500 yuan / ton; molecular weight: 14 million solid The quoted price of granule is 9400-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight is 16 million yuan / ton, 9800-10500 yuan / ton for solid particle, 10400-11000 yuan / ton for molecular weight 18 million solid particle, 12000-12500 yuan / ton for powder, 12000-13000 yuan / ton for non-ionic, and 300-400 yuan / ton for some specifications. The sales pressure of manufacturers and distributors is still huge. The daily price fluctuation is small and flexible, which has little impact on the transaction. Moreover, the enterprise said that the current price has reached the low level, and there is almost no room for downward trend.

Thirdly, industry perspective. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In June, the price of acrylonitrile remained stable after rebounding, but the range was small. According to the manufacturer’s introduction, whether the raw materials were hoarded or not had different impact on the production cost; from the perspective of the whole industry, poor demand is the fatal injury of the market, which determines that the market is still light this month.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of business agency, the development of water treatment industry in 2020 is difficult, the profit is low and the demand is poor. The overall market of polyacrylamide is relatively light in June. The price of acrylonitrile, the raw material in the upstream, is in a rising state. The cost is higher than that in May. The downstream demand side is not good, the pressure of enterprises is increasing, and the profit space is shrinking. For the future market, the market is more likely to maintain stability, and there may be small or slight normal fluctuations