1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the price of domestic caprolactam market rose in the first half of June. On June 1, the average ex factory price of caprolactam was 9916 yuan / ton, and on June 15, the average ex factory price was 10400 yuan / ton, up 4.87%.

On June 15, the caprolactam commodity index was 52.31, up 0.59 points from yesterday, 47.69% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 32.77% higher than the lowest point, 39.40, on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

As of June 15, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 10200 yuan / ton, cash was delivered from the factory, and the manufacturer’s capacity was 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11000 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 10800 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 10800 yuan / ton, and the 300 thousand ton / year unit is in normal operation, and it will be accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid in Yaolong, Tianchen, Fujian Province is 11000 yuan / ton, and the 350000 ton / year unit is in normal operation.

Upstream: the price of pure benzene rose slightly in the first week of June. Crude oil and outer plate have strong support for pure benzene. Port inventory rose in the week, but the increase decreased. In the second week of June, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was adjusted again, with a total increase of 200 yuan / ton. The price gap between the inside and outside of Sinopec was narrowed, and the market bottom supported the strengthening. This week, pure benzene port inventory still rose, but the increase decreased. In the week, the price of pure benzene strengthened, but the downstream market was weak, and the actual market turnover was weak.

Downstream: in the first half of June, the domestic PA6 market was relatively strong, and the spot prices of different brands increased to a certain extent. The upstream caprolactam inventory is low, and the supply is still tight, which strongly supports the cost end of PA6. The demand of downstream slicers is general, and the purchase strategy is the main one. The consumption of export plastic products increased, PA6 trading volume was fair, and the interest giving sentiment of merchants weakened.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that at present, upstream raw material prices maintain the previous market continues to rise, caprolactam supply is tight. The downstream polymerization plant has a high enthusiasm for start-up and an increased demand for caprolactam. It is expected that caprolactam market will continue to push up in the future.