Commodity index: on May 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.54, down 0.61 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, down 20.15% from the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: Business Agency (100) ppi.com ）According to the monitoring data, the polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) market fluctuated and decreased in May. On the first day, the mainstream market price was about 14820 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream market price was about 14000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.26%.

Factor analysis:

First, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to the first half of April 2020, the domestic market price continued to be significantly reduced. From the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month price was up to about 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the manufacturer’s dynamics: Sinopec North China acrylonitrile spot price was increased and 8000 yuan / ton was implemented; Jiangsu silbon Petrochemical’s 520000 ton / year acrylonitrile plant currently maintains half load production; Shandong kelur chemical’s 130000 ton propylene plant The acrylonitrile unit was shut down for maintenance in early April and has not been started yet The reduction of production caused the price of acrylonitrile to rise. At present, the main quotation of the market is about 8000 yuan / ton. That is to say, the increase of upstream propylene and the reduction of production of acrylonitrile manufacturers led to the sharp increase of 1650 yuan / ton of acrylonitrile in May. Downstream demand: since 2020, polyacrylamide manufacturers have always reflected that business is difficult to do, cooperation projects of downstream construction enterprises are reduced, survival of water treatment engineering enterprises is difficult, and raw material market has been depressed.

Secondly, from the perspective of manufacturer’s production. It is found that one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, Henan Province, has normal production and high inventory, and the price of main product specification products has been stable in May. The price of cation and molecular weight 12 million is 13900-15000 yuan / ton; the price of anion and molecular weight 10 million is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, the price of molecular weight 12 million is 8800-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of molecular weight 14 million solid particles is 9400-10000 yuan / ton, The quotation of molecular weight 16 million solid particles is 9800-10500 yuan / ton, the quotation of molecular weight 18 million solid particles is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of molecular weight 18-20 million powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; non ion: the quotation is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton; some specifications are comprehensively adjusted by 600-800 yuan / ton this month. Restricted by the weak downstream demand, manufacturers have a huge sales pressure, and some enterprises have to reduce prices.

Third, from the perspective of industry. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area gradually returned to work. In March, the logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide changed little, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask” industrial chain relationship, the production of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased due to the device maintenance and other reasons, and the price of acrylonitrile increased many times this month.

About the future market: according to the analysis of the business community, in the whole may, the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile increased by 1650 yuan / ton, a large margin, the pressure on the cost end of polyacrylamide increased, but the price of polyacrylamide enterprises declined instead of rising, in fact, most of them are inventory products; since the demand has been stagnant, the inventory of enterprises is high, and the inventory consumption task is arduous. As far as the current situation is concerned, the trend of Polyacrylamide in June should be slightly fluctuating, and the current mainstream price range may not change much.