1、 Price trend
On March 20, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3967 yuan / ton, down 1.65% from last Friday, according to the data of business agency.
On March 19, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3510 yuan / ton, down 435 yuan / ton, or 11.03% compared with last weekend.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
As of March 19, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 987400 tons, an increase of 81000 tons or 8.94% compared with last Thursday, an increase of 32600 tons or 3.41% compared with this Monday, and the inventory further increased.
In terms of delivery, this week’s average daily delivery of Zhangjiagang main port is about 5300 tons, while the comprehensive daily delivery of Taicang to the two warehouses is about 3100 tons, similar to that of the previous week.
At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 71%, and that of polyester downstream is about 82%, which is higher than that of last week.
In terms of unit, the 700000 ton / a ethylene glycol unit of sharq4 in Saudi Arabia was restarted after heating up, and the unit was shut down for maintenance in early February. The 400000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. was restarted on March 11, after the unit temporarily shut down on March 6. Tongliao gold coal 300000 ton glycol plant was shut down on March 5, and restarted on March 15. Now 90% of the plant is under construction.
3、 Analysis and prediction
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Crude oil prices continued to fall this week, with the impact of market confidence, glycol spot futures prices fell.
At present, the futures market is extremely sensitive to the rise and fall of crude oil prices. Due to yesterday’s sudden surge in crude oil, today’s ethylene glycol main 2005 contract fell for a week, opening higher than the previous day’s settlement price of 107 yuan / ton. Although it soon fell back in the opening, the price gradually picked up by the end of the afternoon.
In view of the recent dependence of glycol on the change of crude oil price, under the influence of the increasing global public health events, if the crude oil price does not have a stable rising point, then the current market supply and demand for glycol, glycol price will not be supported.
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