1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market price of melamine fell on the 17th. The terminal demand has not been significantly improved, the manufacturer’s inventory is under pressure, and the focus of some market negotiations has been lowered. The average price of melamine enterprises quoted on the 17th was 5433.33 yuan / ton, down 1.21% compared with yesterday’s, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On the 17th, the mainstream price of melamine market in China was around 4800-5600 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5200 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5100 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5400 yuan / ton. On March 17, the melamine commodity index was 58.42, down 0.72 points from yesterday, down 41.58% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 2.55% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: since March, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rebound, especially in the northern region. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of the domestic liquid ammonia market is significantly higher than that at the end of February. Since the rebound began in late February, the liquid ammonia market has started to rebound, which experienced a short period of repair. In the week of March 9, the liquid ammonia market has continued to rise. The dealer’s price adjustment range and Frequency has increased. According to the price monitoring of business agency, in recent (3.9-3.17) Shandong urea ex factory price rose first and then fell. The price rose from 1813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1816.67 yuan / ton on March 11, up 0.18%, and then fell to 1793.33 yuan / ton on March 17.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on March 17, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (14.67%), nitric acid (3.33%) and acetic anhydride (3.18%). There are 21 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are chloroform (- 10.53%), styrene (- 3.78%) and propane (- 3.65%). The average rise and fall of this day is -0.17%

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business association, the terminal industry is in a low start and the actual demand is still poor. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be consolidated and wait-and-see.