1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, on February 12, the domestic phosphorus ore market was weak and stable. Based on several sample areas, the average ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore was around 403 yuan / ton, basically the same as before the Spring Festival. On February 11, the phosphorus ore commodity index was 74.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 37.17% from 117.80 (2012-07-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 44.04% from 51.38, the lowest point on December 24, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is still shut down, production is still low, the market atmosphere is light, the transaction has not yet recovered, the market demand is slow to start, many mines are delayed to start construction to about 15, and the enterprises in production are properly stocked. At present, the market prices of phosphorus ore in various regions are basically based on the prices before the year, 30% of the price of ammonium phosphate ore car in Guizhou is 320-360 yuan / ton, which is expensive The price of phosphate rock in Huizhou Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. is stable, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock car board is 350 yuan / ton; the price of 28% grade phosphate rock car board is 310 yuan / ton; the reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore train platform in Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining Co., Ltd. is 330 yuan / ton. The current market is waiting to be sorted out and operated.

Industrial chain: the operating rate of phosphate rock downstream product phosphoric acid enterprises is low. Limited by the current environment, the demand of phosphoric acid market is weak and weak. At present, the reference price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid Market in Jiangsu Province is 5500-5800 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of 85% Industrial phosphoric acid of Guangxi Mingli Group Co., Ltd. is 5400 yuan / ton; the industrial price of 85% of Kunming Southern Yunnan industry and Trade Co., Ltd. in Yunnan Province is 85% The ex factory price of phosphoric acid is 5700 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of 85% phosphoric acid in Sichuan Sichuan Kanglong Chemical Co., Ltd. is 5200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 75% phosphoric acid is 4350 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the price up and down list of bulk 58 on February 11, 2020, which are concentrated in the nonferrous plate (5 kinds in total) and the agricultural and sideline plate (2 kinds in total). The top three commodities are titanium dioxide (2.18%), nickel (1.24%) and soybean meal (1.08%). There are 17 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, which are concentrated in energy (4 kinds in total) and steel (4 kinds in total), and the commodities with a decline of more than 5% are mainly concentrated in rubber and plastic plate; the top three commodities decreased were pet (- 8.82%), egg (- 4.96%), glycol (- 4.59%). The average price of this day was – 0.54%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business club, the data analyst of the business club thinks that it is expected that the subsequent start-up of the phosphate ore market will be gradually restored, the enterprises will resume their work one after another, and the overall market will gradually improve.