1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 3 was 11200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 10 was 11033 yuan / ton, with the weekly price down 1.49%. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on February 10 is 55.49, down 0.34 points from yesterday, 44.51% from the highest point of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 3.76% higher than the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10300 yuan / ton, cash is delivered, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11750 yuan / ton, and the unit capacity is 400000 tons / year. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11550 yuan / ton, and the capacity of the unit is 450000 tons / year, which will be delivered upon acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 11550 yuan / ton, and the capacity of the unit is 300000 tons / year, which will be delivered upon acceptance. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11600 yuan / ton, contract order, unit capacity 280000 tons / year.

Industrial chain: the price of pure benzene has been declining since February. This week is the first week of returning to work after the Spring Festival. Affected by the epidemic, the downstream operating rate is low, the operating load is not high and the transportation is limited. The pure benzene market is light and the price is declining. This week’s pure benzene port inventory is down from the year before. After the Spring Festival, the market of cyclohexanone is basically closed, with few transactions. Due to the impact of national traffic and road logistics, most of the terminal factories were delayed to return to work, the starting load of caprolactam was reduced, the demand for cyclohexanone was also reduced, the inventory of cyclohexanone factories was increased, the production was reduced, the traders did not return to work temporarily, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the delivery was cold. In terms of price, the quoted price of cyclohexanone is still the price before the festival, and the mainstream factory price is 7300-7450 yuan / ton, so there is no transaction price temporarily.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top three commodities are isopropanol (1.47%), 1,4-butanediol (0.82%) and butanone (0.76%). There are 25 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 7.94%), PX (- 6.67%) and glycol (- 6.47%). This week’s gains and losses were – 0.64%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of the business association believe that at present, the downstream terminal market is rare to resume work, the demand for caprolactam is weakened, the purchase intention is not strong, and the price of raw materials is reduced. Therefore, the price of caprolactam has been lowered, and more inventory orders have been placed. It is expected that caprolactam market will continue to be weak in the later period, with a downward trend.