1、 Price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week (1.13-19), the domestic adipic acid market changed little, with a weekly decline of – 0.49%. The dealers’ quotation part fell slightly, with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton. As of last weekend, the mainstream quotation was generally 8100-8300 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the adipic acid market was weak and stable, with little change in prices in most regions. Some of the prices were lowered. On the basic level, the supply pressure was still large and the demand at the end of the year was weak, which was the main factor that troubled adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. The improvement of the cost side did not bring any improvement to the downstream adipic acid, but increased the dilemma of enterprise profit contraction. At present, the demand of adipic acid downstream is still not improving, and there is no peak of purchasing season before the Spring Festival in the downstream. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated, the market has not reversed the upward momentum, and the enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is closely related to the current low demand and low procurement, which is also an important reason why the adipic acid price did not continue the rebound Market at the end of December last year. From a regional perspective: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some prices have been lowered, mainly due to the light positions before the festival. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, from the perspective of upstream cost, although pure benzene has ended the rising pattern, it is still at a high level. As of January 19, pure benzene is still at a high level, but the transmission effect of high cost is restrained by the weak downstream demand, which does not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. On the contrary, with the high price of pure benzene, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers are compressed, and The extreme weakness of the market is confirmed by the weakness of demand and the failure of prices.

 
Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply side, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large, the inventory of manufacturers and the market is still high, and the pressure of dealers is large, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have accumulated a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is large. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, before the year, the downstream procurement was not strong. At present, the downstream centralized stock up behavior did not appear. Most of the downstream procurement was on demand, and the enthusiasm for stock up was not high. In 2020, the nylon 66 market was even depressed, and the downstream operation rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid was from December last year Since the middle of January, it has continued to decline. As of January 19, the decline was – 0.63% (as shown in the figure above). PA66 market has not improved in the near future. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

3、 Future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid will still run in a weak position before and after the Spring Festival. It is unlikely that the price will reverse in the middle and later stages. On the one hand, we need to pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we need to pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, the peak of goods preparation has not come, the demand dilemma is difficult to change, and the price will remain weak.