1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market fell in a narrow range. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of butadiene in China was 8283 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 8112 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a 2.07% drop in the price within the week, a 10.76% drop in the price on a month-on-month basis, and a 24.44% drop on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly, while the spot market in the North rose slightly. In the cycle, Ningmei and Jiutai are hard to effectively supplement the downstream due to the influence of weather. The export of northeast suppliers is still limited, and the tight availability of goods in the North boosted the market slightly higher. East China is relatively abundant in supply. In the cycle, some sources of goods supplement the demand of the north, which supports the mentality of some businesses. In the middle and later part of the week, with the atmosphere of replenishment in the lower reaches of East China falling and Sinopec’s supply price falling, the market atmosphere returned to caution. But the short-term spot has not been effectively supplemented, the northern market is relatively strong. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Province is 8450-8550 yuan / ton, and the price of sporadic northeast goods is high; the delivery price in East China is 8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China will be reduced by 300 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton in a week; Liaotong chemical butadiene will be sold by competitive price of 78 tons of goods at Monday’s node, with a base price of 7910 yuan / ton and a transaction price of 8500 yuan / ton; Fushun Petrochemical’s supply of goods this week is mainly for self use and mutual supply, and there is no export plan for now; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s 70000 ton / year butadiene plant will operate normally, with a quotation of 7750 yuan as of Thursday /Tons, an increase of 250 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the 100000 ton / year oxidation and dehydrogenation unit of sippon Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is in normal operation, with a stable quotation of 8500 yuan / ton and a small amount of goods for export in a certain period. It is heard that the price is about 8100-8150 yuan / ton; the 60000 ton / year butadiene extraction unit of Shandong Huayu was shut down on January 8 and the restart time is uncertain; the 140000 ton / year butadiene extraction unit of Dalian Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation on January 8, Caution is recommended.

In terms of industrial chain: SBR: in this cycle, the mainstream factory price of domestic SBR sales companies has increased, with the mainstream increase ranging from 200-300 yuan / ton. This week, the operating rate of domestic styrene butadiene plant is around 5.80%; Qilu, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Shenhua and Weitai styrene butadiene plant are all in normal operation, and Bridgestone styrene butadiene plant is restarted on January 6, 2020; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plant continue to stop.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous cycle; in this cycle, the operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was around 6.30%, and the mainstream domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant kept normal operation, but Maoming Petrochemical’s cis-4-polybutadiene plant was temporarily shut down, and only the first-line operation was resumed in the future, so the operation started slightly lower.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the start of the synthetic rubber industry was ok, and the replenishment of positions in the downstream before the festival had certain support for the market. Due to the weather, the outflow of Jiutai and Ning coal sources was limited. On the negative side, East China is relatively abundant in spot goods, with limited transaction follow-up, and the northern supply side is cautious. In recent days, the weather has affected the circulation of goods in the north, and the spot performance in Shandong market is slightly tight. However, East China is relatively abundant in goods, and the later cargo is still replenished in Hong Kong, so the supply side is not sustainable. In the next cycle, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, there may be some replenishment follow-up in the downstream, but the supply of goods in Fushun and Northwest China is unknown, and some businesses are cautious. Under the influence of supply and demand fundamentals, butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will be mainly sorted out in a small scale next week, and it is suggested to pay attention to the spot supply in the north.