1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business agency, zinc market rose first and then fell this week, and zinc price rose in shock. As of January 10, the spot price of zinc was 18540.00 yuan / ton, up 1.24% from 18313.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week (January 5), up 0.82% from 18390.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 15.27% from the same period last year.
2、 Market trend analysis
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Domestic zinc Market
The output of refined zinc from January to December 2019 was 5.844 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 9.64%. It is estimated that the refined zinc output will be 6.24 million tons in 2020, up 6.78% year on year. The main reason for the sharp increase of refined zinc output is that the domestic TC has risen to 6500 yuan / ton all the way, near the winter storage, and the processing cost has slightly dropped in some areas, but the reduction range is limited, and the output is still increased. The output of refined zinc has increased significantly, which has a great negative pressure on the future zinc price, and the zinc market is negative.
International LME Market
It can be seen from the figure that the price of zinc in LME market rose sharply after new year’s day, which is good for zinc market and good for domestic zinc price. The international economic environment has recovered, and the future zinc market is good.
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3、 Future prospects
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, thinks: due to the continuous increase of zinc concentrate processing fee, the substantial increase of domestic zinc output, and the high enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises, it is expected that zinc output will continue to rise substantially in the future, which will have negative pressure on zinc price; however, with the recovery of international economic environment, the demand of zinc market in the future is expected to rise, and the momentum of zinc price rise is large; the Spring Festival is just around the corner, and zinc will be ready in the near future The momentum of the city’s rise has increased, and the momentum of zinc price rise is sufficient. Generally speaking, the recent positive and negative of zinc market is mixed, and the overall recent positive is greater than the negative. It is expected that zinc price will rise in the future.
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