1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continues to be strong. As of January 9, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2195 yuan / ton. The price is 1.97% higher than that of the same period last month and 3.47% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: domestic methanol market continues to be strong, with strong local trend. In terms of the mainland market, the atmosphere is fair in the near future, and the overall shipment is smooth. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory. Shandong, North China, central China and southwest China all move up to varying degrees. Due to the impact of rain and snow, local transportation in Shanxi is limited, and the shipment speed slows down. In terms of port market, with the trend of futures becoming stronger, the whole market is obviously moving up. At present, there are uncertain factors in the international macro level, with a strong wait-and-see mentality.

In terms of freight: the domestic methanol freight has continued to rise in part, with reference to 270-360 yuan / ton for North line to Lubei, including 340-360 yuan / ton for Daqi to Lubei, 270-300 yuan / ton for road to Lubei, 310-430 yuan / ton for South line to Lubei, 160-240 yuan / ton for Guanzhong to Lubei, 200-260 yuan / ton for South line to Lubei, 190-310 yuan / ton for Shanxi to Lubei. From Guanzhong to Lianyungang, 250-260 yuan / ton. 350-360 yuan / ton from Ningxia to North Shandong, 720 yuan / ton from Xinjiang to North Shandong.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is temporarily stable. Under the influence of low demand in the downstream market, the pressure of formaldehyde enterprises’ delivery and inventory increased, and the production cost could not be transferred to the downstream market, which led to the recent low start of formaldehyde Market and some losses.

Acetic acid: the overall domestic acetic acid market rose slightly. Due to the shutdown of some manufacturers’ devices in the early stage, the start-up of downstream industry is stable, the overall spot supply of acetic acid market is tight, which supports the supplier’s growth. In the short term, the demand of domestic downstream industry of acetic acid is stable, and there is no shortage of short-term supply of goods to rise again. However, considering the inventory pressure in the later spring festival, the overall growth of acetic acid market is expected to be limited.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic market for dimethyl ether has a fair trading situation, and the price has risen broadly. Take Henan Province as an example. At present, the price adjustment range of mainstream enterprises is more than 30 yuan / ton. The central link price is 3260 yuan / ton, Yongcheng 3300 yuan / ton and BMW 3200 yuan / ton. The overall price rise of mainstream enterprises further stimulates the terminal purchase mentality.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, macro: the situation in the US and Iran is still tense, and there is a certain support for crude oil and methanol products in the short term; Arbitrage: under the arbitrage between the mainland and the port, partial shipments are still acceptable; Inventory: at present, the overall inventory in the mainland is not under pressure, and the inventory of some enterprises is low; near the Spring Festival, the transportation capacity is tightening, the short-term freight is on the rise, and the arrival cost is increasing. On the negative side, weather: in rainy and snowy weather, the circulation of goods is limited, and partial shipments are limited. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market may maintain a strong market in the short term, and the impact of freight changes on the market should be continuously concerned.