1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene on the outside market in December showed a downward trend. At the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was 763.75 US dollars / ton, down 7.40% from 824.75 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month, and the current price was 12.81% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene overall declined in December. Asian ethylene market prices fell, as of the end of the month, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $747-755 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $667-675 / ton. The price of European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the end of the month, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at US $853-866 / ton, and CIF, northwest Europe closed at US $771-780 / ton. As of the end of the month, the price of ethylene in the U.S. region fell. As a whole, except for the bottom rebound of CFR Northeast Asia market in the middle of the month, the prices of other markets fell all the way. The European and American ethylene market was closed during Christmas, and the overall ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on December 27, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 61.72 USD / barrel, up 0.04 USD or 0.1% compared with the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 68.16 USD / barrel, up 0.24 USD or 0.4% compared with the previous trading day. According to the news, China and the United States may soon officially sign the first phase of the trade agreement. In the later stage, the business community believes that the oil price in 2020 still needs to pay attention to two aspects: on the one hand, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction; on the other hand, the actual decline in crude oil demand brought about by the global economic slowdown. However, in the early stage, the oil price fell by a relatively high margin, which did not play a supporting role in ethylene, and the external market of ethylene fell. After the price of styrene in the downstream fell in shock and the price of ethanol rose slightly, the consolidation continued, which did not reflect the supporting role of ethylene price for the time being.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analyst of business and chemical branch, influenced by the news that China and the United States will soon sign the first phase of economic and trade agreement, the international oil price will rise to the highest level in three months, with strong cost support. Therefore, data analyst of business and chemical branch expects that ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of a small range of upward exploration.