I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of Monday (December 16), the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6183 yuan / ton (including tax), which was about 70 yuan / ton lower than that of last Friday (December 13), basically flat compared with that of last Monday (December 9). At present, the main quotation of n-butanol in China is about 6100-6600 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Products: in the past week, the domestic n-butanol market has been in a weak and stable state. At the beginning of last week, the production of Shandong large-scale plant was temporarily reduced, and the northwest plant was shut down, the pressure on the supply side was reduced, and the offer of mainstream plants was stable. The spot supply level of ports in East China is low, and the market negotiation space is limited. South China’s supply of goods is stable, low price replenishment of downstream users, high-end market pressure. The market negotiation of n-butanol is always at the low end. The market focus of East China and South China is lower, and the manufacturers have higher initiative in shipping. The pressure on the supply side of the primary market is not large for the time being, the mainstream manufacturers operate stably, and the market negotiation space is small. Until the end of last week (December 13), the downstream primary market demand of n-butanol turned better, mainly long-term, and the spot market trading atmosphere was good; the manufacturer’s sales was not under pressure, and the quotation was firm, and some manufacturers’ quotation was increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton compared with the previous one. Up to now, some butanol units are expected to return to work, but the manufacturer’s inventory is still low, the quotation is stable as a whole, and some areas are in the second stage In balance, the market price in some regions has been slightly lowered again. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in South China is around 6450 yuan / ton, about 50 yuan / ton lower than last Friday. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is basically the same as last week, and the participating price is around 6100-6250 yuan / ton. At present, the overall market price is basically stable after a small fluctuation.

Industrial chain: at present, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province is generally stable. At the beginning of December, influenced by the “Black Friday” international crude oil market, the price began to decline. The price has dropped about 400 yuan / ton this month. Today, the price continues to stabilize. At present, the market transaction has dropped to about 6670-7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 6670-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of downstream enterprises is low, the purchasing mentality is slightly improved, the downward trend of propylene price begins to stop, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to be stable in the near future.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business association, affected by the low load operation of the downstream butyl plant, the downstream has not yet entered the market to make up the position, and the market negotiation atmosphere is slightly stagnant. It is expected that the consolidation and operation of the n-butanol market will be the main part this week.