I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market of domestic methanol spot market is narrow and low. As of December 10, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2125 yuan / ton. Prices fell 1.53% month on month and 12.55% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the performance of domestic methanol market is different, and the port market price rises first and then falls. In the domestic spot market, the dealers’ wait-and-see mentality is obvious at the beginning of the week. Prices in some regions are temporarily stable, and local demand is weak. The northwest guidance price has declined by 20 yuan / ton, which needs to pay attention to the transmission to the mainland market. In the port market, the futures market surged higher and fell back, driving the fluctuation of the spot market, but on the whole, it moved up slightly compared with the previous period.

Freight: domestic methanol freight is arranged. For the part of Inner Mongolia North line to Lubei, the reference is 140-240 yuan / ton; for the part of South line to Lubei, the reference is 150-180 yuan / ton; for the part of Guanzhong to Lubei, the reference is 110-170 yuan / ton; for the part of Guanzhong to southwest, the reference is 160-180 yuan / ton; for the part of Shanxi to Lubei, the reference is 90-180 yuan / ton. The reference from Xinjiang to Lubei is 650 yuan / ton, and from Ningxia to Lubei is 190-210 yuan / ton. Part of the north line of Inner Mongolia to Hebei is 160-190 yuan / ton. Local heavy fog weather in winter, pay attention to vehicle operation.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: domestic formaldehyde enterprises offer temporarily stable. The methanol market in the upstream has a narrow range, which has little impact on the formaldehyde market. The downstream market is subject to environmental protection regulation, and the overall start-up has declined, the demand has shrunk significantly, and the overall transaction is light.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is weak. Although the profit of acetic acid is small, the spot market is still oversupplied, and the spot manufacturers compete passively in price reduction. The short-term market fundamentals tend to be negative and hard to change. The transaction in acetic acid market is insufficient. Wait and see the inventory accumulation of each manufacturer. The weakness of acetic acid market continues.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic price of dimethyl ether was stable as a whole, and the transaction situation slightly cooled. Except for the two lakes area, the sales of DME in the North may gradually return to steady state in the near future. Due to the terminal consumption inventory, the recent transactions are rarely active, and the price is mostly stable.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, olefins: the load of an olefin unit in Shandong has been increased, and raw materials have been purchased in the near future; crude oil: OPEC + has reached an agreement on production reduction in the first quarter of next year, which will support the storage of energy chemical products. On the negative side, demand: the local demand side is weak, and the real price is loose; supply: some early-stage parking devices are recovered, and the local supply is increased; main production area: the northwest guidance price is declining, or transmitted to the mainland market. According to the methanol analysts of the business club, the short-term domestic methanol market performance is different, and the market in some regions of the spot market is expected to decline. In addition, the northern winter haze and snowfall weather are frequent, so it is necessary to pay attention to vehicle transportation.