I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, polysilicon market in November did not continue the stable and strong market in October, but declined. Especially in the late ten days, the market gradually cooled down, but the pressure of supply and demand was not large, the market showed some rigidity, and the price drop was moderate. As of November 29, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall price of domestic polysilicon solar energy fell by 4.41%, and the average price offered by the enterprise to the outside world was 58000-60000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell by about 25% year on year. At present, the price of single crystal in China has also declined. The price range of compact material is 70000-730 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is narrower than that in October.

II. Market analysis

In the whole month, the domestic polysilicon market has cooled significantly. After going through the “golden nine silver ten” slow market, the current polysilicon market has entered a callback period. As the overall market temperature has not continued, the procurement remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the purchase price of polysilicon will continue to loosen at the end of the next month.

In terms of market supply, it is still dominated by oversupply. The domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient in the whole month. By the end of the month, the domestic polysilicon enterprises have reached the peak of operation rate, and the early-stage maintenance devices have basically been started, but some enterprises have not yet recovered to full production operation, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially the silicon materials with high proportion of polysilicon materials Factory. At present, there are 15 polysilicon producing enterprises in China, with an actual capacity of 396000 tons / year. Although some of them produce single crystals, the output of polysilicon materials is still close to 50%. At present, the price of polysilicon is loose. At present, the rise of the overall inventory level of polysilicon is also one of the factors affecting the price trend. In particular, the more severe the price trend of polysilicon materials is, the less optimistic it is expected to be by the end of the year Right.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since November, the demand for polysilicon has gradually cooled, especially the market price drop in the middle and late ten days has increased compared with the beginning of the month. The main reason is that the downstream polysilicon chips are the same as the upstream, showing the instability of supply and demand. The operating rate of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is only about 40%. In addition, although the inventory level of polysilicon chips has changed Good, but the pattern of small factory bidding still cannot be got rid of due to the slow pace of de industrialization and weak market demand. Even though the production has been reduced by less than 50% of the utilization rate, the price is still not stable. In addition, the operating rate of downstream ingots, battery chips and other enterprises has declined significantly, so the demand for polysilicon has been reduced. Most polysilicon manufacturers also execute early orders, and the new single rate is lower than that in October, so the price naturally declines to a certain extent.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market continues to decline this month, mainly due to the lack of demand. From the perspective of the current high operating rate of enterprises, there is also a certain risk in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some new devices put into production, which release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with reduced load. If the starting load of enterprises in the later stage enters A step-by-step increase does not rule out the periodic surplus of supply. Especially, when the market demand has peaked at present, we can’t be too optimistic about the polysilicon market. It is expected that the polysilicon market will maintain a weak trend and the price will be difficult to reverse.