I. price trend

In November 2019, the “V” trend of domestic 1 × tin ingot Market, the average price of domestic market at the beginning of the month is 137512.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month is 138575 yuan / ton, up 0.77%.

On November 30, the tin commodity index was 70.59, the same as yesterday, down 29.59% from the highest point of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 64.70% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis

Domestic market: in terms of the futures market this month, Lunxi, Huxi and spot markets all showed a “V” trend. The futures market fell back from the beginning of the month until it bottomed out around the 20th. The rise at the end of the month is mainly dominated by funds, and the Biqi mine output of Alfa Minh is affected. The company expects that the tin concentrate output in the fourth quarter of 2019 will be lower than the previous expectation of 2000-2200 tons. According to customs data, China’s refined tin import in October was 170 tons, down 46% month on month, and the inventory in the previous period fell to 2850 tons. In the spot market, the market inventory in East China and South China was also low. The futures market led the spot market to rebound at the end of the month under the multiple positive boost, and it rose 139000 yuan / ton all the way to a high consolidation. In terms of manufacturers, near the end of the month, the manufacturers are active in shipment, and the downstream procurement is limited. At the end of the month, some manufacturers plan to replenish goods, and there is no significant breakthrough in transaction, so the overall transaction atmosphere is weak. As of the end of the month, the premium of Yunxi in Shanghai tin 2001 contract was 800-1000 yuan / ton, the premium of ordinary Yunzi was 300 yuan / ton – 200 yuan / ton, and the premium of small brand was 500 yuan / ton – ping Shui.

Industry: U.S. economic data is good. Powell said in the Federal Reserve’s beige book that he is optimistic about the U.S. economic expectations. The U.S. stock market has set a new record, but the high U.S. dollar also suppresses the basic metals.

III. future prospects

In December next week, European and American data sets will have a certain impact on market confidence and the dollar index. In the near future, the fund tolerance is high and the performance is loose. The domestic basic metals may be in the final rush active state before the end of the year. It is expected that the spot tin market will mainly fluctuate in the situation of unchanged supply and demand