I. price data

This week (11.25-11.29), the price of refined petroleum coke continued to fall. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1013.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 980.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 33.50 yuan / ton in the week and down – 3.31% in the week.

On November 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 76.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.01% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.95% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the delivery of refined petroleum coke was average, the delivery of medium and high sulfur coke was blocked, and the prices of some refineries fell slightly.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 57.77 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 58.11 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 0.59%; Brent crude oil is 63.39 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 63.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 0.76%. OPEC’s discussion on production reduction made the market cautious in trading, and the U.S. crude oil inventory and production increased. At present, the price of the international crude oil market is not strong. Downstream: the market performance of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminum is average, and the price of graphite electrode is stable at a low level. The policy of limiting production in heating season will be implemented in November. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of November 29 is 14010 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 47th week of 2019 (11.25-11.29), there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are LNG (6.90%), coke (3.09%) and methanol (1.30%). There are five kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were dimethyl ether (- 3.91%), petroleum coke (- 3.31%) and MTBE (- 1.42%). This week’s average was 0.3%.

III. future forecast

Analysts predict that the market price of local refined petroleum coke will continue to fall this week, the market demand for calcined coke and electrolytic aluminum is average, the price of graphite electrode is stable at a low level, and the volume is average. In November, the heating season began to limit production and the downstream demand was limited. It is expected that the price of ground refined petroleum coke will be weak in the near future, and the price range may be around 800-1000 yuan / ton.