I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, in November, in the first half of the month, the domestic polysilicon market did not maintain the strong market of last month, the price fell slightly, the market gradually cooled down, and the pressure of supply and demand increased. As of November 15, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall decline of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 1.06%. The average external quotation of enterprises was 60000-63000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell year on year About 22%. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 70000-750000000 yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is not much different from that in October.

II. Market analysis

First of all, take a look at the supply side of the market. In the first half of the month, the domestic polysilicon supply performance was sufficient. As of this week, the domestic polysilicon enterprises have reached the peak of operation rate. The early-stage maintenance devices have basically been started, but some enterprises have not yet recovered to full production operation, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially from the silicon plant with a high proportion of polysilicon materials. From the price point of view, the price of polysilicon is still at a high level. Although the price is loose, there is not much decline. The main reason is that the inventory of polysilicon materials in the silicon material factory has not been greatly increased at present, and the enterprise does not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even though the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, this week’s price has not been significantly reduced.

Let’s take a look at the demand: since November, polycrystalline silicon demand has gradually declined, but there is still a rigid demand. However, the downstream polycrystalline silicon chips present the same unstable phenomenon of supply and demand as the upstream. The operating rate of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is only about 40%, and the operating rate of downstream ingots, battery chips and other enterprises has declined significantly, so the demand for polycrystalline silicon has been reduced 。 Most polysilicon manufacturers also execute early orders, and the new single rate is lower than that in October, so the price naturally declines to a certain extent.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market is still rigid and stable. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises has not expanded dramatically, which also confirms the relatively moderate market demand. However, the supply side is not totally risk-free, because there are some new devices put into operation at present, releasing part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. In particular, under the condition that the market demand has peaked at present, we cannot be overly optimistic about the polysilicon market. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the near future, and we cannot rule out the possibility of continuing to explore in a small scale.