I. price trend

This week, the lead market (11.4-11.8) was slightly lower. The average price of the domestic market was 16481.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 16218.75 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.59% per week.

On November 9, the lead commodity index was 98.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.34% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.27% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, the spot lead market price is 16150-16550 yuan / ton, the spot lead price is slightly lower, the market is bearish, traders have a high enthusiasm for shipping, but the downstream orders are limited, and the procurement is mainly renewable lead. In recent years, with the increase of lead ore processing fee, the operation rate of smelter and the high inventory of smelter, the demand for primary lead is low. At present, the consumption of lead-acid battery is off-season. Affected by the cost, the demand for primary lead is still dominated by recycled refined lead, and the primary lead is cold. Up to Friday, the mainstream price of domestic lead general brands offered a discount of 50 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract.

Major domestic events:

The demand for renewable lead environmental protection maintenance becomes weak, the short-term Shanghai lead period price continues to be weak operation: lead perspective: the demand for renewable lead environmental protection maintenance becomes weak, and the short-term Shanghai lead period price continues to be weak operation. Logic: the high price of Lun lead period has been greatly reduced, and the support for Shanghai lead period has been weakened. From the perspective of domestic fundamentals, the supply and demand of domestic lead is expected to weaken. Due to environmental protection factors, the production of recycled lead in Anhui, Hebei and other parts of the country is limited. With the increase of lead ore processing fee, the starting of primary lead keeps stable and has a rising trend. In terms of consumption, the battery consumption of electric vehicles is in the off-season, the demand for replacement of automobile battery still needs to wait for a pick-up, the demand for replenishment of storage by battery enterprises becomes weak, and the overall consumption is becoming weak in the season. In terms of exports, domestic lead exports have been flowing out slightly in recent days, but with the further expansion of lead export losses, further outflow may be limited. At present, the inflection point of domestic lead ingot inventory has been confirmed. Therefore, the short-term Shanghai lead futures price is expected to continue to be weak.

International Battery Innovation Association: in the next few years, lead-acid battery is still the mainstream!! Before that, Yang Yusheng, academician of Chinese Academy of engineering, delivered a keynote speech on the root cause of frequent spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles. According to academician Yang, a large number of lithium-ion batteries are piled up, which is the main cause of spontaneous combustion. It is suggested that low-speed electric vehicles should use lead-acid batteries for safety reasons.

Nonferrous Industry: the easing monetary policy caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the Sino US trade war negotiation ushered in a better atmosphere. The gold price fell. The central bank launched a one-year MLF operation of 400 billion yuan, with the bid winning rate of 3.25%, 5 basis points lower than the previous period, the RMB broke 7, and market confidence recovered.

III. future prospects

There are still a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week. The economic weakness makes loose monetary policy in various parts of the world one after another. After five consecutive positive days this week, the U.S. dollar may have a high continuous rebound blocked. The domestic RMB is also collated near 7. The macro monetary policy is conducive to the base metals continue to show a rebound upward trend, but the more leading role is that next week is the delivery cycle of 1911 contract, More metal varieties will change according to the strength of their own fundamentals, in line with the structural change of the monthly price difference. Strong items are alert to high-level pressure. Weak metals or low-level key integers will test the support effectiveness, and the strength differences will increase.