I. price trend

The domestic ethanol market is generally stable this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the week is 5430 yuan / ton, while the domestic ethanol market price at the weekend is 5420 yuan / ton, down 0.18% in the week. The price is 0.37% higher than the same period last month, and 2.83% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic ethanol market is stable as a whole and fluctuates locally. The ethanol market in Northeast China runs smoothly, while small factories intend to keep up with large ones and offer for the time being stable; the ethanol market in Jilin province maintains stable operation, with large factories executing contracts and terminals on demand; the ethanol market in East China runs well, and the offer goes up under the influence of the rising freight in Northeast China; the ethanol market in Shandong province runs smoothly, with Yankuang ethyl production at full capacity, and terminal demand recovers without water Yes; the price of cassava alcohol market in Northern Jiangsu is relatively high, the supply of goods in the site is slightly tight, and the downstream takes the goods as needed; the cassava alcohol market in southern Jiangsu is stable, the downstream demand is light, and the price of alcohol is stable; the ethanol market in Henan Province is stable and light, with little fluctuation, and the number of vehicles to receive the goods is significantly reduced, so the liquor companies are temporarily stable. The domestic ethanol market is stable in a short period of time.

Industry chain: in the upstream, corn: after the national day, the state reserve auction continues to operate normally. Affected by the gradual increase of corn market listing in the production area, the trade subjects in the production and marketing area have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction rate of state reserve auction continues to decline. At the beginning of the month, the overall transaction rate of state reserve auction fell to 2.24%. The last auction of national reserve corn in 2019 held on October 17 was 3.13%, with the overall transaction rate continuing to be low and the average transaction price of 1706 yuan / ton. The overall outbound price was relatively stable. In addition, the amount of corn listed in the new season is gradually increasing, the supply of corn market in the production area is gradually loose, and the supply pressure of corn market continues to increase, resulting in the weak operation of corn market price in the production area.

In terms of the downstream ethyl acetate, the domestic ethyl acetate Market declined. The enterprise started to recover and there was abundant supply on the site. And the demand is low, the purchase is not good. The raw material acetic acid went down. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the market is expected to decline.

III. future forecast

As the pressure of environmental protection and security inspection eased, the supply expectation increased, and the liquidity of goods sources increased. As the price of corn fell, the price of northeast goods delivered to the liqueur companies rose. The ethanol analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic ethanol market might be stable, medium and small in the short term.