I. trend analysis
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, in October, the cobalt market suddenly lost its upward momentum, and the domestic cobalt price changed its upward trend in September and fell in shock. As of October 31, the price of cobalt was 276833.34 yuan / ton, down 7.82% from the average price of 300333.34 yuan / ton on October 1, up 3.94% from the average price of 266333.34 yuan / ton on September 1. Overall in October, the cobalt market lost its aura and fell in shock, while the price of cobalt fell in wide shock.
II. Market analysis
LME spot cobalt price
It can be seen from the figure that from September to October, the spot cobalt price of LME rose first, then fell, and then remained stable. The overall international cobalt market is still optimistic, but the strength is not there. The overall trend of cobalt market is weak, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt price is insufficient. At the same time, due to the influence of the cost of cobalt and the relationship between supply and demand in the future market, there is limited space for the international cobalt price to fall, the pressure on the cobalt price to fall is relatively small, and the international cobalt price is volatile and stable. In the future, the domestic cobalt price is lack of motive force and mainly subject to shock adjustment.
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LME market March future cobalt price
It can be seen from the figure that the price of cobalt in LME market in March rose all the way from September to October, but the price of cobalt in futures began to adjust in October. The international cobalt market is still optimistic about the future market expectations, and the price of cobalt remains strong. However, due to the poor performance of demand side such as new energy vehicles at this stage, the upward momentum of cobalt market is weakened. Cobalt price is not strong enough to rise, and it is expected to adjust in the future.
Sales of new energy vehicles fell 16% year on year in September
According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 80000, down 34.2% year-on-year, which has been down for three consecutive months. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 872000, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the growth rate was significantly lower than that from January to August. The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell for three months in a row, and the decline has an expanding trend. The sales volume of new energy vehicles has not recovered continuously. There is a certain negative voice in the market, and the prospect of new energy vehicles in cobalt city is expected to decrease in the future. The demand for new energy vehicles in the future is expected to decline, which is negative for the cobalt market.
Mobile phone sales fell year on year but recovered month on month
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According to the data of China Academy of communications, in September 2019, the total number of domestic mobile phone market shipments was 36.236 million, down 7.1% year-on-year, and up 17.4% month on month; in January September 2019, the total number of domestic mobile phone market shipments was 287 million, down 5.7% year on year. Domestic mobile phone sales fell sharply on a year-on-year basis, but increased on a month on month basis. The demand for cobalt market is expected to decline, but the future market is optimistic. Although the sales volume of 5g mobile phones in September was only 497000, the growth rate was optimistic. 5g mobile phone has not yet ushered in rapid development, and it is expected to usher in 5g switching tide in 2020. In 2019, the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market is not obvious, but the future market is still optimistic.
III. future prospects
According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business agency, the international cobalt market is no longer hot in October, and the price of cobalt fluctuates and adjusts, which has a negative impact on the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price has certain downward pressure. The poor performance of new energy vehicles in September is another incentive for the domestic cobalt price to fall in October. The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell for three consecutive months on a year-on-year basis. The demand of cobalt market is expected to decline, and the negative pressure on cobalt price is further increased. The month on month growth of domestic mobile phone market brings a glimmer of light to the demand of cobalt market. Although the month on month growth of mobile phone sales does not mean that the mobile phone market has experienced rapid growth, the demand for spot cobalt has increased significantly. In the future, cobalt market is still optimistic, and there is still room for cobalt price to rise. However, due to the poor demand performance of cobalt Market in the near future, the short-term upward momentum of cobalt market is insufficient and there is some downward pressure, and the future market of cobalt price is still dominated by shock adjustment.
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