I. price trend

In October, the domestic LNG market reversed and started the crazy inflation mode, which quickly pushed up to a high level. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of LNG on August 8 was 2866.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on January 15 was 3700 yuan / ton. The price of LNG rose 30.81% in a week, down 9.31% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 15, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is about 3000 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3900 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton. The price of liquid in various regions is rising crazily.

Market analysis: in recent days, the temperature has dropped, northern cities have gradually entered the heating period in winter, and regional cities have started to burn and replenish warehouses, which has driven up the overall demand, and driven market investment under the psychology of “buying up but not buying down”. Boosted by cold air, LNG soared by 30.81% for 8 consecutive days after the festival, rapidly rising to a high level, with a good atmosphere for market trading and investment, and the logistics and transportation enterprises may usher in a turnaround. At present, the environmental protection requirements are relatively strict. We actively build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system to fully promote the consumption of clean energy. The pressure of environmental protection, “coal to gas” has stimulated the rapid growth of natural gas demand. After the National Day holiday, the roads are restored to be smooth. There is a short-term “upsurge” of replenishment in the downstream, and the terminal demand is increased. Due to the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the liquid plant has a strict loss. Heavy, based on cost considerations, LNG prices have risen in a large area. The trading price of feed gas may be affected by the bidding for feed gas of CNPC’s conventional liquid plant on May 15, and the arrival of winter supply and other favorable factors boosted LNG’s trend.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 40th week of 2019 (10.7-10.11), there are 5 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the energy sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are LNG (15.16%), LPG (7.98%) and methanol (3.55%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are MTBE (- 11.87%), gasoline (- 5.32%), Brent crude oil (- 4.54%). This week’s average was 0%.

III. future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business club, at present, due to the boost of cold air, the increase of market demand and multiple factors such as gas source bidding, LNG price is strongly supported, and it is expected that the liquid price will continue to push up in the future.