Price Trend

In September 2019, the domestic 1# tin ingot Market shocked down. The average price of the domestic market was 132,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 135,712.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.81%.

On October 8, the tin commodity index was 68.78, down 0.35 points from yesterday, down 31.39% from the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 60.48% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: Lunxi and Huxi rebounded after a series of callbacks at the beginning of this month, with Lunxi rebounding to 17 750 and Huxi rebounding to 14 590. In the absence of a significant improvement in the fundamentals, the trend of post-shock decline. Affected by this month’s retaliatory rise in the spot market, the monthly increase was 2.81%. At the beginning of this month, the main contract of Shanghai Futures Tin 2001 was affected by bulls, which rose by 11040 yuan/ton in a week. Due to the large increase of bulls and the departure of short positions, Shanghai Futures Tin once went up to the stop-and-rise board and then fell slightly. But the fundamentals of the rise did not appear too important news, more or more capital driven, so the market did not have strong support, the latter entered the trend of callback. At the end of the month, the mainstream market quotation is 135500-137500 yuan/ton. There are actually 135000 yuan/ton of low-cost goods near the market. At the end of the month, the price of next month’s ticket package for Shanghai Tin 2001 contract will be 700-1000 yuan/ton, the price of ordinary Yunzi will be 300-400 yuan/ton, and the price of small brand will be 200-500 yuan/ton.

Industry: Base metals are in a situation of blocked and pressured decline. Eurozone data is weak in the week. Britain is facing heavy resistance to leave Europe. The US House of Representatives announced a formal impeachment investigation on President Trump. The US dollar surged 99.2 points, surging 99.2 points, and basic metals fell all the way. The U.S. reported a 0.1% increase in consumer spending in August, down from 0.5% in July. Consumption slowed more than expected in August, because consumption is the most important component of the U.S. economy, which indicates that the U.S. economy will continue to decelerate in the third quarter. In terms of prices, the US core PCE index in August is still below the Federal Reserve’s policy target of 2%, but the core CPI in August has risen to a 10-year high of 2.4%. Inflation risk can not be ignored.

Import and Export: According to the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, the export volume of refined tin in Indonesia in July 2019 decreased by 33% to 4,397.40 tons compared with the same period last year. Indonesia exported 6,575.80 tons of refined tin in the same period last year. On a year-on-year basis, exports in July were 42% lower than in June. Indonesia is currently the world’s largest exporter of refined tin.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on September 18, the global tin supply gap was 4,800 tons from January to July 2019. Total reported inventories were 6,500 tons higher than at the end of 2018, but this included 6,000 tons of unexplained increases in Indonesian inventories. Global refined tin production increased by 3,000 tons from January to July 2019 compared with the same period last year. Asia’s output increased by 2,500 tons year on year. Apparent demand in China increased by 8% year on year. The global demand for tin from January to July 2019 was 219.7 million tons, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 16.5 million tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year. In July 2019, the output of refined tin was 33,000 tons and the consumption was 35,500 tons.

Data released by the Beijing Branch of the International Tin Association (ITA) show that China’s refined tin production in the first half of 2019 decreased by about 10% from a year earlier to about 75,000 tons. ITA’s survey of 15 refineries in China showed that the output of tin refining in June was about 12,500 tons, a 9% decrease in ring-to-ring ratio and the same ratio. China is the leading tin producer. Cui Lin, ITA’s chief representative for China, said that the decline in tin refining production was due to the reduced supply of tin concentrates in Myanmar and weak demand in China. Tin futures prices in Shanghai have fallen by nearly 8% since the beginning of the year, to about 134,000 yuan per ton. Cui said prices below $140,000 would affect production because of the high cost of ore supply in Myanmar.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

There will be a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week. Apart from the PMI data which is difficult to be optimistic, only the employment data in the United States can be expected. The US Dollar Index over 99 is prone to rise and fall, which will increase the expectation of opening market after the festival. The only possible expectation is the willingness to replenish goods after the festival.