Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of 180 CST fuel oil in the mainstream domestic market as of September 30 was 4670.00 yuan/ton, up or down 3.78% from 4500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The fuel oil commodity index on September 30 was 94.58, down 0.2 points from yesterday, down 18.40% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 105.25% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic fuel oil trade was basically stable this month. The sharp rise in mid-term prices was mainly due to the impact of the attack on Saudi Arabia. At the end of the month, the mainstream price was around 4650 yuan/ton. On September 27, Singapore Fuel Oil (380Cst) was quoted at a spot price of US$395.38 per ton, down by US$16.72 per ton from the previous day (converted to RMB 2,797 per ton at the current exchange rate). As of September 25, Singapore’s stock of residual fuel oil (except asphalt) increased by 185,000 barrels to 203.69 million barrels; that of light distillates increased by 72,000 barrels to 10.07 million barrels; and that of medium distillates increased by 11.95 million barrels to 13.664 million barrels.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of the business community, the US WTI crude oil was $56.71 / barrel at the beginning of the month, and it was $55.91 / barrel at the end of the month. The monthly rise and fall was -1.41%; crude oil was 61.08 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the month, and 61.91 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, or 1.36% in the month. In September, the crude oil market rose in panic because of the attack on Saudi oil equipment; since the attack, the situation has stabilized, Saudi Arabia has not reduced oil exports, and U.S. inventories have increased, and international oil prices have fallen sharply.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that the rise of international crude oil affected by the Saudi Arabian incident has led to a sharp rise in the ship-fired market. With the gradual stabilization of the situation, the price of crude oil has fallen, the terminal demand of the ship-fired market has returned to light, and the market has returned to rationality. Fuel oil market prices are expected to fall in October, ranging from 4500 to 4700 yuan/ton.