Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2182 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2224 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 1.92%, rising by 4.61% annually and falling by 25.59% year on year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic market continued to rise this week. The benchmark price in Northwest China rose by 100 yuan/ton compared with the same period last week, near 1800 yuan/ton, but the port was relatively weak. As of Wednesday (August 14), the total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China totaled 117.26 million tons, an increase of 1.27 tons annually, continuing to refresh the historical high. Although the 800,000 tons/year methanol plant in Western Shandong was stopped for overhaul this week, the methanol plants in Datang, Xianyang Chemistry and Shandong Rongxin were restarted one after another this week.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market is up narrowly. The market of Shandong and Hebei is affected by the rising trend of methanol, and the market offer is raised. The offer of other regions is temporarily stable. The domestic formaldehyde market starts in different places, but the overall situation is at a low level. The downstream is also in a downturn, and the actual single transaction is relatively light.

Acetic acid: This week the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise slightly. Soap acetic acid plant in Jiangsu recovered during the weekend, but the load of Celanese acetic acid plant decreased, the supply side was good, and the negative impact was basically offset. Subsequently, Tianjin Alkali Plant in North China stopped, Shaanxi extended acetic acid plant restarted and maintained low-load operation. The supply side of North China market continued to tighten. However, due to the shortage of stocks and active replenishment in the downstream, some manufacturers continued to raise their offer prices, which led to higher market transactions. Anhui Huayi overhauls as scheduled in mid-week, but downstream customers have stocked up, without affecting the market factors for the time being.

Dimethyl ether: This week, domestic dimethyl ether prices are on the rise, trading performance is slightly general. From the supply side, the overall performance of domestic dimethyl ether Market is relatively stable, about 20.00%, down 1.13% compared with last week, down 5.35% annually; in the demand side, except for some gas stations, there is no strong willingness to stock up at the grassroots level. This week’s sustained rise in dimethyl ether prices is mostly supported by the price of raw methanol, that is to say, the rise in costs has driven up product prices. This week, the domestic methanol market rose rapidly, with prices in central China rising by 130-200 yuan per ton. As a result, the profits of dimethyl ether enterprises have been significantly reduced and the prices of enterprises have been passively raised.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, shipments from upstream enterprises in Northwest China are still acceptable this week, or continue to bid next week; MTO in Shandong Luxi is expected to test in mid-August; Baofeng in Ningxia is scheduled to put into operation from the end of August to September; Shenhua Yulin and Silbang in Jiangsu are restored; Guohong methanol plant in Yankuang is scheduled to be overhauled for about 20 days. On the bearish side, external arbitrage remains, imports continue, and port inventories are still expected to rise. Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Qinghai Zhonghao and other maintenance devices are scheduled to resume in mid-late August. Yankuang Yulin 700,000 tons is scheduled to start production in October; Inner Mongolia Rongxin is expected to start production in September; Jingmen Yingde can produce products near mid-August. Shanxi, Mongolia and other upstream enterprises shipment is still acceptable, or continue to rise next week, but the scope may be reduced, or in the range of 30-50 yuan/ton. Affected by typhoon, the unloading of trucks in downstream enterprises such as Shandong Refinery has been delayed, but next week or continue to purchase on demand. In mid-late August, the supply of the Mainland tends to increase, and in the latter half of next week, the Mainland tends to be weak without significant improvement in downstream demand. Outside arbitrage still exists, imports continue, ships delayed by typhoon arrive late or one after another, port inventory is short-term or high-level difficulties, business community methanol analysts predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market is mainly weak.