SITUATION: On July 29, the EG1909 contract opened at 4471 yuan/ton, the highest at 4584 yuan/ton, the lowest at 4471 yuan/ton and the closing at 4561 yuan/ton. Compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day, it rose 109 yuan/ton, or 2.45%. Trading volume was about 864,000 hands, and position increased by 37,464 to 352,100 hands.

News: 1. Hubei Chemical Fertilizer Branch of China Petrochemical Co., Ltd., with 200,000 tons of ethylene glycol plant, stopped for overhaul on May 15 and restarted on July 29. The product is expected to come out early next month. 2. The temporary breakdown of the 120,000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Dodar, South Korea, is expected to be overhauled for one week. 3. It is expected that the East China Port will reach 143,000 tons of ships next week (July 25-July 31). Among them, 90,000 tons are planned for Zhangjiagang, 23,000 tons are planned for Taicang Port, 20,000 tons are planned for Ningbo, 10,000 tons are planned for Jiangyin, and there is no planned arrival for Shanghai.

Spot price: spot and quasi-spot offer, 4550-4555, buy 4545-4550, 4545-4550, close this week; offer 4550 at the end of August, buy 4540, negotiate around 4450-4455; offer 4540 in September, buy 4520, negotiate 4520-4545. Futures market performance is strong, East China’s Ethylene Glycol Dollar market sells more when it is high, and is cautious to buy gas alone. Mainstream shipping offer is 555, and buying is 551-552.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Dalian Commodity Exchange Ethylene Glycol warehouse receipt is 6048, no change from the previous trading day.

Main positions: The top 20 positions announced by Dalian Commodity Exchange show that the purchase position of EG1909 contract increased by 12836 to 97386, and the sale position increased by 12936 to 113830.

Viewpoint summary: Ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is about 921.5 million tons, the ring ratio continues to decline; domestic ethylene glycol plant start-up rate is about 70.44%; coal ethylene glycol start-up rate is about 51.57%, the ring ratio has decreased. The start-up load of the polyester plant is about 84.79%, and the ring ratio continues to decrease. The production and marketing of polyester is about 120%, and the production and marketing of polyester is gradually warming up. China’s textile industry has witnessed an increase in passenger volume, totalling 7.44 million meters, of which 5.39 million meters are for filament and 2.05 million meters for staple fabrics. From July 26 to July 28, the shipment of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang mainstream reservoir area was about 38970 tons, while that in Taicang mainstream reservoir area was about 8600 tons. Fundamentally, the recent fundamentals of ethylene glycol have gradually improved and prices have improved. Technologically, the EG1909 contract is moving high today, with the increase of warehouse going up. The top of the contract is under regional pressure of 4580-4600, and the MACD red pillar is expanding. The downstream is about to enter the procurement cycle. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation of ethylene glycol will remain strong. Investors are advised to do more on bargains.