Price Trend
According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of trichloromethane in China fell first and then stabilized in June. At the beginning of the month, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2980 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was about 2970 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 0.34% in the month, and the lowest price was 2730 yuan/ton in the month, which was 8.39% lower than that at the beginning of the month.
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II. Cause Analysis
Product Reasons: This month, the relationship between supply and demand in the domestic trichloromethane market is the main reason affecting the price trend: at the beginning of the month, the overall start of trichloromethane market is insufficient, but the market demand for downstream refrigerants is not good, and the price overall first stabilizes and then falls; after the middle of the month, the market demand for refrigerants has warmed up and the maintenance of Dongying Jinmao has been delayed, and the supply side is short. With the increase of export, the domestic trichloride market continues to rise, the spot supply in the industry is less, and the stock is low. At present, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong is about 3150 yuan/ton; that in Jiangsu is about 4000 yuan/ton; and that in Jiangxi is about 3700 yuan/ton. In terms of start-up, Jinling Chemical Plant started normal; Dongying Jinmao Chemical Plant is still under maintenance; Luxi Chemical Plant started 60%; Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal; Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant normal operation, etc.
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Industry chain: On the upstream side, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic methanol market is obvious. The price fluctuation in the month has declined. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the domestic methanol market was 2334 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2180 yuan/ton, with a decline of 6.60%. The price fell 19.93% compared with the same period last year. The supply in the liquid chlorine market is tight in the month, but the downstream demand is not good and the price continues to weaken. Enterprises overreport 200-400 yuan/ton. On the downstream side, this week, the domestic R22 refrigerant market first restrained and then rose. At present, the overall start of construction is still acceptable, and the overall turnover is weak. Now the company offers 18500-19000 yuan per ton for bulk water.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were 34 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 11 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (20.33%), hydrochloric acid (20.00%) and calcium carbide (11.04%). There are 43 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 19% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-21.81%), silicone DMC (-17.38%) and butanone (-13.71%).
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3. Future Market Forecast
Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the current spot supply of trichloromethane is tight, the overall performance of the market is strong, the downstream market just needs to be stable, the price of trichloromethane support is good, follow-up needs to pay attention to Shandong Jinmao overhaul situation, the completion of enterprise overhaul will gradually fill the supply-side gap, prices will inevitably fall. It is anticipated that the market of trichloromethane will be strong in the near future and adjust in the later period.