Price Trend

According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic market price of BDO was 9,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 8,900 yuan/ton at the weekend. Within the week, the market price of BDO declined by 1.11%, which was 24.48% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week’s domestic BDO market continued to be weak, reorganized operation, the mainstream price of bulk water has no fluctuation compared with last week. Under heavy cost pressure, some factories offer high, but the downstream industry as a whole is weak, demand continues to slump, high price resistance is strong, single high-end transaction difficult. At present, BDO factories in China are operating steadily, and the supply of spot goods is becoming more and more abundant. Last week, although the new device of Yizheng Chemical Fiber PBT was put into operation successfully, the increase of demand for BDO is not obvious. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the middlemen follow up cautiously, lack confidence in raising the offer, stable delivery mentality becomes the dominant, follow the market negotiations, and the bargaining focus is temporarily stable.

On the market side, as of Friday (5.31), the weakness of BDO market in East China was consolidated. Downstream demand side performance is low, on-demand procurement, some factories spot offer strong, few follow-up orders. At present, there is no obvious fluctuation in the center of gravity of the on-site negotiations, and the operators pay more attention to the start-up of downstream PBT. The market of BDO in South China is weak. Some factories have strong market intentions, the downstream demand is general, just need to enter the market, the actual follow-up is weak. At present, the barycenter of intra-venue transactions has not changed much, and the operators pay more attention to the downstream PBT dynamics. The BDO market in North China has been consolidated with weak downstream demand. The market is just in need of delivery. It is difficult to release real orders. The middleman delivers goods on the market along with him. The atmosphere of on-site wait-and-see is strong.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, calcium carbide market is expected to continue a weak and stable trend next week, calcium carbide supply exceeds demand still occupies the main market, industry insiders are short-sighted. On the supply side, the previous overhaul manufacturers have resumed production, and the load of Shaanxi Chemical Plant has increased. It is expected that the plant will continue to rebound next week. On the demand side, the downstream demand is still weak, the terminal demand is insufficient to follow up, the business is pessimistic, the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high, the market is not supported by good news, and the rise of BDO is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic demand for BDO downstream is sluggish: PBT is affected by stable start-up and weak terminal demand, the focus of gravity is down, and the loss is serious; polyurethane downward trend, leading to PTMEG market difficult to rebound, weak and stable operation; GBL market has not changed, poor demand performance; TPU, slurry and so on also entered the off-season. Under the pressure of cost, the factory offers are high, but the middlemen follow up cautiously and negotiate with the market. At present, the main focus of the market is downstream PBT, the market continues to be weak. Whether PBT factories can bear the pressure of normal production is the key to the late trend of BDO. There is no clear release of market information, supply and demand saw game. Business BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to be weak and stable in the short term, and that long-term or negative decline may occur.