According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 7th to April 14th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 10700 yuan/ton to 8966.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 16.2% during the period. The domestic butadiene market has experienced a significant decline in this cycle, and under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs, the crude oil and synthetic rubber futures markets have experienced a wide decline. The cost and demand sides have had a significant impact on the butadiene market, dragging down the mentality of the spot market. On the supply side, the port arrival situation this week is good, and the overall supply of butadiene is relatively loose. Under the comprehensive influence of the above news, the butadiene market fell sharply this week. Due to a slight improvement in fundamentals over the weekend, the butadiene market has slightly rebounded.

Cost wise: The international oil price market has experienced a significant decline. As of April 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.50 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $64.76 per barrel. On the one hand, the US tariff trade war and tariff trade barriers have had a huge impact on the global economy, increasing uncertainty in the future. The market believes that the risk of the United States falling into an economic recession has increased, and this will have a huge negative impact on global economic growth. On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced future production increases, which also had a negative impact on crude oil and led to a significant decrease in international oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 10000 yuan/ton, and it will be lowered by 1200 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 11th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12290 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened significantly; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, and there is not much pressure on the supply side; Downstream production slightly decreased, and inquiries for Shunding rubber were light due to the impact of international trade trends. Merchant offers have significantly decreased, with mainstream quotes in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China ranging from 12100 to 12500 yuan/ton as of April 11th.
Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to experience a wide decline this cycle, with many negative factors on the cost side. In terms of supply, the recent arrival situation at the port is good, and the supply of butadiene is good, but the supply side is relatively short. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market on the demand side has experienced a wide decline, and the overall operating rate has decreased. The overall demand still maintains on-demand procurement. Overall, the supply and demand performance of the butadiene market is bearish, and it is expected to be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.