According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has experienced a significant decline in recent days (4.1-4.10). As of April 10th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14598 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.73% from 16172 yuan/ton on the first day. Currently, influenced by international trade news, the atmosphere in the domestic rubber market is relatively weak. The high prices of raw materials have fallen back; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase; Downstream production has slightly decreased; The significant decline in the Shanghai rubber market has led to a significant adjustment in the natural rubber spot market.

In the second quarter, the overseas main production areas are expected to gradually increase production volume, coupled with the current good weather and high price stimulation, rubber farmers are cutting rubber smoothly, and rubber prices are difficult to stabilize at high levels; At the same time, Yunnan Province in China has conducted trial cutting, and it is expected that the supply of rubber raw materials at home and abroad will increase, leading to a decrease in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of April 10th, the price of Thai glue was 57.50 baht/kg, a significant decrease from the pre holiday price of 68.00 baht/kg.
Natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, but overall it remains at a high level. As of April 6, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 620700 tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons or 0.13% compared to the previous period.
Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly decreased, coupled with the impact of international trade trends, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the natural rubber market, and inquiries are light. As of April 6th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.6% of the load.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices fall from high levels, coupled with unclear international trade trends and weak downstream inquiries, the support for natural rubber will weaken, but the inventory of Tianjiao Port will continue to grow; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.