According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market experienced a slight rebound in February after a unilateral decline. From February 1st to 28th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 5178 yuan/ton to 5275 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.69% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 16.10%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic MTBE market trend was weak after the holiday, and the demand for gasoline terminals was sluggish. Operators only purchased a small amount of related gasoline components on demand, and MTBE manufacturers’ shipments were cold, with prices mainly falling and consolidating. In the middle of the month, the domestic MTBE market showed some upward trend due to the export consolidation of some large manufacturers, resulting in relatively tight domestic resource supply. At the same time, transactions improved, end-users moderately purchased, and manufacturers’ shipments improved, actively pushing up offers. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices rose strongly, and the inventory pressure of production enterprises was not high. Due to the impact of the price increase in the ethanol market in some regions, coupled with the continued strong operation of raw material corn prices, holders of goods had a strong mentality of supporting prices, and the focus of the domestic ethanol market steadily increased.

In terms of cost, the price of raw material corn is stable but slightly strong, and the cost side has provided some support for alcohol prices. With the boost of cost benefits, enterprises have a strong mentality of supporting prices. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

On the supply side, Shandong Qufeng Factory has resumed shipments, and the overall spot supply on the supply side is abundant. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support was flat; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

In the future market forecast, the overall spot prices on the supply side of the market are stable and consolidated, and the price of raw material corn is running strongly. With the support of favorable costs, enterprises have a strong mentality of supporting prices. On the demand side, there is a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and terminal purchases are urgently needed, with transactions following the market trend. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will experience a strong short-term trend.