Public data show that the first three quarters of 2016, China’s new energy automobile production 461 thousand tons, an increase of 83.7%.

Chinese international futures research thinks, according to the projections of the current rate, is expected in 2017 China’s new energy automobile production will reach about 640 thousand units, is expected to total copper consumption of about 38 thousand and 400 tons, accounting for about 0.3% of China’s copper consumption.

The Ministry of China manufacturing “2025″ report, according to the plan, in 2025, Chinese brand new energy automobile sales will reach 3 million units, accounting for up to 20%.

“In 2015, China’s automobile production 24 million 830 thousand, if the growth rate of 25% per year in accordance with the electric vehicle production estimates, by 2025 China’s electric vehicle production reached 4 million 760 thousand units, with a total amount of copper is about 280 thousand tons / year, accounting for the current year copper consumption in China 2.5%.” China international futures research, limited short-term new energy vehicles on copper consumption growth dynamics, will not have much impact on the copper market.

But once in the United States over the past five recessions, accurate prediction of three times (1981, 2001 and 2007), copper is not Langdexuming. As has been widely used in electrical, light industry, machinery manufacturing, construction industry, an important demand for copper is often used as a wide range of economic activities, the price trend and can accurately predict the global macroeconomic.

Commodities and who go

Crude oil and copper, who on commodity prices lead to more obvious?

Found China Securities Daily reporter comparing several index trend, LME copper, the copper (46470, -140.00, -0.30%) and the trend of the Mandarin commodity index trend is more convergence, falling into the channel in 2011; and Brent crude oil, U.S. crude oil and CRB index trend is more similar after 2011 – 2014 after consolidation, it fell into the channel.

It is understood that the CRB index is by the Commodity Research Bureau (Commodity Research Bureau) on the basis of a futures price index on the world market 19 basic economic sensitive goods price system, commonly referred to as the RJ/CRB index; and the Mandarin commodity index (CCI) is tracking 28 domestic listed commodity prices overall performance. The former reflects the world commodity movements, while the latter reflects the domestic market.

GF Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Guo Lei pointed out that the crude oil is a key period of the product, the first is that it is the mapping of industrial demand, it can not be replaced, it is entity attribute is much stronger than the metal; secondly, it is related to the depth of interest game between the resources of China and the industrial country, Price Bureau complex; again, it is one of the most important resources, on the middle and lower reaches of the industry is expected to have a profound impact, there is no industry restocking is expected, or make up long, crude oil price trend is a key determinant.

In 2017, Guo Lei believes that using crude oil as a coordinate (2016 oil prices in the month were between $32-54, $45 a year), the corresponding assets evolution may have the following three kinds of circumstances. A: the crude oil price fluctuations in the range of $50-60, and then have the corresponding moderate inflation, space debt stocks slightly better than stocks, bonds, asset cycle dominance; case two: crude oil price fluctuations in the range of $60-70 or even higher, the corresponding class stagflation, shares bonds double play, hedge assets dominated; situation three: crude oil price fluctuation $40-50, corresponding to a return to deflation, easing the debt is expected to rise, slightly better than stocks, asset light dominant.

“The situation is a high probability, followed by the two, pay attention to the assets of the two cases of logical pricing.” Guo Lei said.