According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market first fell and then rose in November 2024. From November 1st to 29th, the domestic xylene market price dropped from 5920 yuan/ton to 5910 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 0.17% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the xylene market fluctuated downward this cycle, and the overall supply of xylene in the market was relatively loose. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the market as a whole remained cautious.

In the second half of the month, the xylene market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations this week, with downstream demand for replenishing some essential inventory, leading to an improvement in the atmosphere of negotiations in the spot market. The overall market rebounded slightly this week, but the extent was limited.

On the cost side: International crude oil maintained a range bound fluctuation trend this cycle, with a wide decline in oil prices by the end of the month. On November 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.94 per barrel, a decrease of $2.30 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, a decrease of $2.16 or 2.9% The crude oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the significant drop in oil prices this time is due to the short-term geopolitical risk reduction caused by the ceasefire news. In the later stage, the trend may still return to the supply and demand fundamentals, as the turmoil in the Middle East has not had a greater impact on crude oil supply than expected by the market. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy will continue to play a regulatory role in oil prices. Considering the current low level of oil prices, it is expected that crude oil will not have a significant downward momentum in the short term, but the market should also be cautious about the risks brought by short-term adjustments.

Supply side: The quotation of Sinopec xylene enterprise has not changed much. Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 28th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5950-6050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On November 29th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on October 31st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 779-781 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 804-806 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to 829-831 US dollars/ton at the end of October.

Market forecast: The crude oil market has been fluctuating recently, with limited impact on the market. In terms of supply, the overall inventory of refineries in Shandong region has been low recently, and the inventory of ports in East China region is also low, resulting in a stable but tight market supply. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products is weak, and the purchasing intention is biased towards rigid demand. Recently, PX futures have weakened in the external market, and the market atmosphere is relatively weak. Overall, there are still bearish factors in the spot market in the near future, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term due to the lack of demand support.