1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market fell last month in November. As of November 29th, the average price of PVC in China was 5130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.95% for the whole month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the PVC spot market has shown weak performance, with prices continuously fluctuating and falling. On the one hand, it is under negative pressure from upstream crude oil, coupled with the continuous decline in the futures market. Guided by the futures market, the PVC spot market generally follows the trend of decline. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. Although there was a slight rebound trend in the market at the beginning of the second week, it was mainly due to short-term enterprise load reduction and price raising intentions, as well as speculative behavior by traders. However, the market continued to decline from mid month to the end of the month. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of November 29th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4970-5200 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since November, the price of calcium carbide has stopped rising and mainly operated at a high level. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since November has been zero. Overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week was weak, with limited support, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the weak balance between PVC supply and demand is the main factor, and the operating rate of manufacturers remains high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory are high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in December, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.