1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4110 yuan/ton. In November, the DMF market price showed a downward trend in a stepped manner, and the price continued to decline. Currently, there is a clear problem of oversupply in the DMF market, and the market supply is surplus. The operating rate of the DMF market is not high, only maintaining around 40%, mainly due to the impact of the continuous downturn in the market and the continuous compression of profits.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: The overall methanol market in November was in a stable to strong trend, and the main reason for the high methanol prices was the reduction in overseas operating rates. Overseas production is in a stage of reduction, and inventory is running at a low level, which helps to reduce domestic methanol inventory consumption. From October to November, methanol enters the destocking season, and the winter is cold, with many methanol plants shutting down successively. However, the current supply is still relatively sufficient, but the upstream strong trend has little impact on DMF, and the positive support in terms of cost is not very obvious.

Operating rate: Currently, the overall operating rate of the DMF market is not high, and the profits of DMF factories are constantly compressed, and the overall market is in a state of loss. Currently, enterprise quotations are basically fluctuating above and below the cost line. There are many maintenance devices in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate is around 40%. After May, DMF began to decline and entered the off-season of the industry, with individual prices breaking through 4000 yuan/ton. In September, the price briefly rebounded, and then entered a continuous downward trend. Some factories have meager profits to support it. In November, DMF prices fell down, downstream demand was insufficient, and market prices continued to fall.

In terms of production capacity: Since 2021, the domestic DMF production capacity has shown a continuous expansion, increasing from 910000 tons to 1.77 million tons in 2024 over a period of three years, with an increase of more than 90%. The rapid increase in production capacity has led to a sustained loose supply in the market, with oversupply and obvious overcapacity. Currently, downstream follow-up is slow, inventory is running at a high level, and the current supply-demand imbalance is obvious, resulting in a continuous decline in DMF prices, falling to a new low in nearly three years.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market currently lacks effective positive support, with limited upward momentum. Factories mainly offer discounts and take orders, resulting in low profits to maintain operation. There is also some cost pressure, and it is expected that the DMF market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with mainstream prices around 4000 yuan per ton.