Ethylene glycol prices fall in November
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4591.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.
On November 27, 2024, the operating price of the port ethylene glycol spot contract was between 4620-4650 yuan/ton. The basis of the port ethylene glycol spot contract remained stable during the day, with early opening spot prices ranging from+47 to+50 for this week’s contract basis. The intraday basis slightly decreased with little fluctuation, with midday basis prices ranging from+46 to+48 for this week, next week’s basis prices ranging from 45 to+47, and December’s basis prices ranging from+55 to+58.
After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many goods, and market trading was relatively weak.
On November 27th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4220 to 4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On November 26, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $537/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $546/ton.
Domestic supply increases
Domestic supply has increased month on month, and in terms of operating rate, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China on November 27th was 67.65% (up 0.12%), with an integrated rate of 68.85% (basically stable); Coal chemical industry increased by 65.49% (up 0.33%), while Tianye saw a decline. The domestic synthesis gas to ethylene glycol production load is gradually recovering, and due to the weakening demand for ethylene oxide, some non coal production units have switched from producing ethylene oxide to producing ethylene glycol.
Device dynamics: A 300000 ton/year synthesis gas to ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi has recently restarted and discharged, and will temporarily maintain single line operation. The plant started shutdown and maintenance at the end of October.
Weak domestic downstream demand expectations
The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.
Expected rebound in ethylene glycol inventory
The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. There is a strong expectation that ethylene glycol will gradually enter the trend of accumulating inventory in December.
Future expectations
The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, crude oil prices have been at a low level recently, and the support from the cost side is relatively insufficient. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.
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