According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market first rose and then fell in October. As of October 29th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7318 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.90% from the beginning of the month.

In the first half of the year, the short fiber market was boosted by rising costs and favorable policies. During the National Day holiday, the Middle East issue escalated, causing concerns about affecting local crude oil supply and boosting crude oil prices. In addition, whether it is interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts to increase liquidity, or real estate policies to boost market confidence, they have a sustained upward effect on the commodity market. But with the weak adjustment of cost, insufficient cost support, and the demand for terminal consumption and essential procurement, the price of polyester staple fiber has slightly declined.

Looking at the future, on the cost side, Israel’s actions are currently limited and restrained, and market concerns about crude oil supply have decreased. International crude oil has opened low and gone low, weakening support for PTA costs. As of October 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.38 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.00 per barrel. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are the main reason, and the seasonal off-season demand in the United States is weak. Coupled with the possibility of Saudi Arabia increasing production in the future, oil prices will mainly operate weakly.

This month, the domestic PTA market first rose and then fell, and the decline slowed down after mid month. As of October 29th, the average market price in East China was 4881 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% from the beginning of the month. Only one 1.2 million ton plant in the northwest is planned to restart in early November. The PTA processing fee is still acceptable, but there is currently no PTA plant maintenance. PTA production capacity remains around 88%, and most enterprises have low intentions for plant maintenance. There are rumors that some long-term shutdown plants may restart. PTA production capacity operation rate will continue to operate at a high level, and spot supply is abundant.

The operating rate of downstream terminal weaving machines will weaken in early November, and the demand peak season will shift to the off-season. There will be no significant increase in orders, and the main focus will be on essential procurement. The supply of short fibers remains sufficient and is about to enter a new settlement cycle. The liquidity of spot goods tends to be loose. Considering the expected production of Yida’s new equipment on the supply side, the overall pressure of oversupply is difficult to alleviate.

Business analysts believe that there are many bearish factors in crude oil fundamentals, and PTA companies have a lower intention to carry out equipment maintenance. The seasonal peak season for consumption is coming to an end, and the downstream spinning industry is mainly experiencing a decline in production, resulting in a lack of favorable supply and demand. The basic highlights of polyester staple fiber are limited, and it is expected that PTA prices will remain weak and fluctuate in November.