According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall toluene market has been declining recently (7.19-7.26). On July 26th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% during the period. During this cycle, the overall toluene market has been weak, with market prices fluctuating downwards. Supply remained tight this week, and refinery inventories have been running at a low level. On the demand side, the downstream procurement intention is low and the intention to receive goods is insufficient, which has a certain drag on market sentiment. During the week, the focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined, and downstream companies maintained their demand for replenishment. As of the 26th, the mainstream price range in East China is 7330-7410 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 200-210 yuan/ton compared to last week.

On the cost side: At the beginning of this cycle, the trend of crude oil has declined. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has eased, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle. As of July 25th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.28 per barrel, an increase of $0.69 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.37 per barrel, an increase of $0.66 or 0.8%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotations have generally decreased this week, but there are slight differences in the degree of adjustment among different underground sources. The company is operating normally, with stable equipment production and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7500 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7600-7650 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7550 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On July 26th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current execution price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China all implemented this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units of Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene on July 26th, with a current execution price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China all implemented this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and had normal sales. The external PX price continues to decline, with CFR China closing at $993-995/ton as of July 25th, a decrease of $16/ton from last week.

On Thursday (July 25th), the Asian toluene market closed down, with the FOB Korea closing price of 844-846 US dollars/ton in August, down 7 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in August was 891-893 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil on the cost side is weak, and the support on the cost side is weak. The maintenance of the toluene unit in terms of supply is gradually coming to an end, and the market expects that supply will resume in the future. In terms of demand, as August approaches, the market expects inventory demand to gradually recover with the “Golden September and Silver October” and future holidays. The toluene market will also enter a period of active trading, which still provides some support for market sentiment. Overall, the toluene market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the impact of equipment resumption on market supply.