According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the toluene market in May fell first and then rose, with an overall slight decline. On May 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7610 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 7510 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, it decreased by 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 7480 yuan/ton.
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International crude oil price range fluctuations have weak support for toluene
The international crude oil price range fluctuated in May, with weak support for toluene. As of May 31st, the closing price of WTI07 contract is 76.99 US dollars per barrel; The Brent 08 contract closed at $81.11 per barrel.
The rising price of toluene in the external market provides support for the domestic market
The price of toluene in Asia rose significantly in May, providing support for the domestic toluene market. As of May 30th, the CFR China toluene price in June was between 928-930 US dollars per ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the month.
The production of xylene has decreased, and the demand support for toluene has weakened
In early May, due to the restart of the early maintenance equipment, the overall production of xylene rebounded to around 7.9%; Starting from mid May, PX units such as Weilian Chemical, Fuhai Chuang, and Hengli Petrochemical began to shut down for maintenance. Domestic PX production gradually decreased to around 740% at the end of the month. In May, the price of PX in Asian foreign markets rose significantly, providing strong support for the domestic PX market. As of May 30th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1032-1034 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1057-1059 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending demand and weak support for toluene
The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of the end of May, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.0.
TDI demand is weak, and starting production maintains a low level, which weakens support for toluene
The TDI market in May saw a narrow consolidation with slight price fluctuations. The terminal market has a strong demand for purchasing, and downstream entry enthusiasm is not high. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the trade market has a wait-and-see attitude. The supplier’s quotation is firm, and the prices of the holders are stable with slight adjustments. The market trading is slightly stagnant.
Significant decrease in port inventory and relief of supply pressure
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The inventory of domestic toluene ports has decreased, and the overall resistance to the upward movement of toluene has decreased. As of May 30th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 45000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 3000 tons, a significant decrease from the end of April.
The pressure on the toluene supply surface is not high due to the combination of device restart and maintenance in the later stage
The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in early June; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics resumed operations in late May. There are still some maintenance plans for aromatic hydrocarbon units in the later stage, and overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.
Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, the current international crude oil market is fluctuating and consolidating, with narrow fluctuations in toluene costs; The demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected; The restart and maintenance of the toluene unit coexist in the later stage, and the pressure on the supply side is not high. It is expected that the toluene market will mainly consolidate in the later stage.
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