According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently (4.23-4. 30). On April 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.91% from 7910 yuan/ton on April 23rd.
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International crude oil with narrow fluctuations and weak cost support for mixed xylene
Recently (4.22-4.29), due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, weakened demand expectations, and the suppression of conflict risk premiums, international crude oil prices have fluctuated narrowly, providing weak support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of April 29th, WTI06 contract settlement is $82.63 per barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $87.20 per barrel. The high prices of mixed xylene in Asia still provide support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $986 to $987 per ton as of April 29th.
Mixed xylene port inventory slightly increases, supply side pressure continues
The mixed xylene port inventory has slightly increased, and supply pressure remains. It is understood that as of April 25th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 75000 tons, which continued to decline compared to the previous period.
Low level mixed xylene production requires weak support for xylene production
The domestic production of xylene has slightly increased from 6.9% to around 7.1%, but overall production is still at a low stage, with weak support for toluene demand. The high consolidation of PX prices in the Asian outer market provides some support for the domestic PX market. As of April 29th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1011-1013 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1036-1038 US dollars/ton CFR China.
The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak
The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has decreased, and the market for naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined. As a result, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased.
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The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported
The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of April 25th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has dropped to around 690%.
Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices
Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.
Future forecast: From a fundamental perspective, international crude oil will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; Downstream PX and mixed blending industries saw a slight decline in production, while the phthalic anhydride industry saw a low level of production, resulting in overall weak support for mixed xylene demand; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.
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